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> > > > This question reflects a lot on the state of the gaming industry not just halo 5. I feel even halo 3 would have a hard time staying on top for long. But not because of the tough competition, more because we are in the mentality and age of getting a games, beating it, keeping it for a bit and trading it in for a new game. Ppl no longer look for longevity and it’s quite sad. That’s why sequels are so popular look at assassin’s creed and games like dead space. This generation doesn’t hold on to games. A lot of my friend go crazy for those increase value when you trade in. Or even the GameStop "most wanted list etc. Mentality is so different now a days. I mean he’ll wasn’t Destiny suppose to be a whole new beast and last X amount of years but a sequel is already in the works lol. COD is not rotating between 3 teams instead of just two appprently.
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> > > That’s a cool theory except other games manage to hold on to their population. You can’t say Halo only dropped out of the top 5 because of a mindset that effects the whole industry when there are 5 or more games above it retaining their population.
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> > And which games would those be?
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> COD will be one. FIFA probably another.
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> Other than that, who knows.
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> In h4’s case it was COD4 (TIMES FOUR) GTA, Minecraft, BF, FIFA, Skyrim, Madden, NBA…and the kitchen sink.
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> http://majornelson.com/2013/12/05/live-activity-for-week-of-november-25/
How would GTA (not released until 2013) or Skyrim (no XBL play) be in the top of those lists against Halo 4 (released w/ XBL mp in 2012)? Not to mention other games could still have a population when a sequel is released (Halo 2/3, any CoD/BF, etc). However, we all know halo 5 is coming in with lower expectations for numbers from half the fans on this forum as it is.
I would like to see it be a highlighted XBL title for years like the past. I think, of the games you mentioned, most won’t last that long, either:
-Evolve looks fun, but I’m sure many will be bored of it (at least on consoles) soon enough. Especially with the heavy aim for dlc
-CoD/BF will no doubt have players. Although Hard line is fighting the similar fanbase issues Halo is.
-The Division is losing support every time they debut new content, as people are slowly realizing it is not a game changer (I smell another Watch Dogs, even if it still seems intriguing)
-Fable is another franchise that has been kicking after 3 games, so we will see what it’s fanbase does if it doesn’t live up to the hype.
-Fifa is a sports title that will be in rotation during the season, much like any other sports game. So it’ll be in the top for sure regardless (despite being stale in gameplay).
-Battlefront has me 50/50. If it doesn’t live up to the past, people will HATE it, just like Halo fans did with 4 (not all, but the old crowd). For a game that went through dev hell, it will be interesting to see if it sparks (if it does, it will be up there. People love the old ones).
It’s all speculation. I would be surprised if any game holds on for a year +. But with my experience, if they nail the launch, 343 will have a solid XBL game for a year or more. MCC would’ve been the best test for this, but many have given up and will not return.