Many of us have read the arguments comparing H4’s pop to H3 and Reach’s, with one side pointing out how H4’s population dropped far quicker than previous games, and the other pointing out how previous games counted population differently. (And how the market has changed since H3, but if that was significant we would have seen a similar trend among other games.)
Generally this is where the argument devolves into nuh uh/yeah huh, but I would like the community to take an actual look at the differences between systems, for reference.
H3: Counted players over the last 24 hours, read in one of these threads that it counted everyone who was signed into xbox live and playing H3, but I don’t know so don’t take my word for it. Either way this isn’t what we are looking at.
Reach: Counts players over the last hour who have played a game of MM, FF or campaign.
H4: Counts the players who are playing a MM game right now.
As you can see each system uses a different period and scope to count population, and listing off these differences might make it seem like Reach’s difference is quite large, however.
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In order for counting players over the last hour to really account for anything it would mean a large portion of the population is just logging on to play a game or two before getting bored and doing something else. Even if this is the case the overall problem remains, a large portion of the population isn’t all that stoked on the new trilogy MM.
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Campaign didn’t bring in nearly enough players to make a dent on the population difference, and the fact that Firefight brought in enough players to somewhat mitigate the MM differences once again doesn’t change the overall problem of people not playing because of options being taken out.
With that in mind, and the fact that H3 and Reach are still pulling in some pretty decent numbers, it seems pretty indisputable that the new trilogy’s gameplay isn’t really clicking with a large portion of the community and the scarcity of classic options has left them feeling alienated.
Assuming trying to make the entire community happy is the goal here what 343 should do going forward into H5 seems pretty clear to me. 343 should really expand on the old/new options they brought into H4, while also bringing back a social/ranked split. “but that will fracture the population.” The population has already fractured, its just something that happens when a series lasts long enough, 343 can’t change the fact that everyone has a different opinion on how each Halo game should be ranked. But they could try to provide most of the major crowds in this community with a selection of playlists that would make them happy.
How I could see it working:
Infinity social: The playground for all the new ideas that have you worried will make people say “this is unbalanced” or “this isn’t halo”. Have ordnance veer straight into kill streak territory, make the armor your spartan is wearing have an effect on gameplay, juggernaut with a promethean, infinity dominion heavies, go nuts, but keep it here.
Infinity ranked: Playlists that take the new trilogy ideas and refine them into a more competitive experience, essentially a more balanced H4 + whatever else gets added that could work in a competitive environment.
Classic social: A decently wide variety of playlists providing gameplay from the old trilogy and reach, focusing more on the just for fun aspects of course.
Classic ranked: More or less self explanatory, the place for MLG and “true” halo types.
I believe that if 343 were to provide MM options like this, while also improving CG options, and launching halo 5 with a larger selection of maps (that are actually in MM from launch.) they could see an extreme shift in the tone of the community and have H5’s MM population 6 months after launch be better than any halo before it.
Edit: forgot FF, but that seems pretty much self-explanatory, and has been covered by others quite extensively.