Who cares? Over a span of what, hundreds, thousands of games, does it really matter how many were won and lost? There are still another hundred-thousans games ahead of you right? Just… enjoy the game, not the stats.
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If I had a dollar for everyone who posted “Oh woe is me, my win rate is only…”
And then you look up on Halo Tracker and it’s nowhere near as bad as they say.
Needless to say I’d be very rich.
As a general rule, whatever they say, double it.
Much like the old adage of however much alcohol you told the doctor you drink, they double it.
I think the last player I looked up, only a few days ago, had literally won 9 out of their last 10 games.
And the other one is the number of people who get sick of “carrying” their team-mates, but conveniently ignore all the times they go negative in losses.
It’s some sort of selectional observation bias - with added anti-343 blinding.
As is true of all FPS, I believe that games that excessively cold-shoulder the solo player will quickly become obsolete.
Full party has the advantage of being able to coordinate. Currently in halo, full parties very often have higher CSRs.
They should be matched with at least equal CSRs. I don’t see MMR working for me as I basically solo most of the time.
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There is a weighting on squads.
On MMR at least.
I’ve been wondering if this is the case. I’m almost exclusively a solo player and my win rate in pretty much 40% and has been slowly dropping. I have no idea why my win rate is actually so much below average but I did think it could be the lack of squad mates.
The question becomes, whether it is enough but only 343i really have access to the data.
Most matches that I’m in that are bad losses are because no one is playing the objective. I don’t mind losing at all if the match is competitive, at least everyone was actively participating.
The weightings are built into TrueSkill2.
So Microsoft more than 343.
But I imagine it’s set up to provide feedback and potential adjustments.
I think we’re seeing a lot more “slack” in the games because;
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Low pop. Sigh. Just not enough players for MM to work with. And the wider range of ranks that people are being set up with is really throwing strategies for Objective games right out the door.
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Bigger BTB. 12v12. That’s got to be exponentially harder to balance than 8v8.
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Quitters. It’s no surprise when you look back on HaloTracker to see games people are posting are unbalanced - invariably there are bots at the bottom of the stats. The game may have started out balanced but it just tilted when bots and JIP are added into the mix.
I kinda disagree with 3, most of the time the quitters don’t cause the disbalance, but are a result of it. People tend to quit matches that are not balanced. Not just the weaker players (who are completely outskilled), but also the best players who don’t want to carry the entire team.
Totally agree but that doesn’t actually explain a significant deviation from the norm in win percentage. I should fall on the winning side of one side of matches roughly as often as I lose. Unless TrueSkill’s compensation is breaking down relative to balancing squads specifically with a small player base.
It could equally be that my play style somehow doesn’t fit very well in the TrueSkill algorithms or least likely but still possible, considering the large sample size, that it’s purely bad luck.
Edit: Thinking about quitters more. It could be enough to cause overall change in win percentage, purely by the increased chance of having teammates leave and it makes sense that effect would increase as games are increasingly harder to balance.
Just more reason to get some Spartan bots into higher skills games.
I’ll happily be the exception–I think my win rate over the last 50 games is like 30% if that.
EDIT: checked and it’s 26% over the last 50 games
After rank re set as a solo player I went from plat 5 to now Gold 3/4 and cannot progress due to 9 out of 10 games containing high plat or diamond players playing with their “Silver” friend and then just destroying the team I’m in.
How can a gold 3 be matched with a diamond 3 and be expected to compete.
Absolutely rubbish system
No wonder people don’t stay with this game
Your overall is still a tick over 50%
So something’s gone awry recently.
Is it just a sample error?
Are you just having a bad patch?
And / or getting caught up in what others are describing? A solo player struggling to find their niche in teams of wider ranks? And
It’s a different dynamic that doesn’t automatically suit all players.
And are you running solo? It sounds like the lower pop means more vs organised squads.
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It’s frustrating for sure.
But it’s also important to keep in mind it’s largely the low population that is causing the grief.
The match maker doesn’t have a lot of options.
The flip side is that for every post complaining about the gaps you find another one defending their “right” to play with friends.
People tend to quit early… well before the actual balance can be determined.
I learned very early in H5 to actually concentrate very hard not to die in the first couple of minutes. Keep the potential quiets interested.
It’s amazing how quickly people will bail as soon as the scoreline hits 0-3.
We’ve even had people post here on Waypoint and openly admit that if their team doesn’t do ‘x’ of the rip then they just quit
50 games is hardly a small sample. It doesn’t go up much over 75–I bet most players don’t even hit that over a whole season. I do play more solo now–but the system is supposed to adjust for that, right? 50 games is not a bad patch, if it were actually reduced skill that should be more than enough time to get me into fairer matches. Plus I still kill more than I die over the entire stretch, even with a bad downward skew from a handful of 3v4s, a 2v4 slayer that was like -20, etc.
As I noted somewhere else, for whatever reason, I just can’t get any slack. I have not won a game in the last 50 where I didn’t have a positive k/d (excepting one with a late quit). I carry fairly often (and lose anyway), but I am quite literally never carried myself.
Gotta pave your own way I suppose! But it would be nice to win more than one out of 4.
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That is not my experience though. The early quitters i encounter already quit before the match start or in the first couple of seconds (before anything happened), and those are the ones that just quit because they didn’t want to play that map or mode (or chrashed while loading in, but i will talk about deliberate quitters right now).
But most quitters in my experience quit when the match is about halfway (in arena slayer matches when the leading team has between 20 and 30 kills) and they are already significally behind. And it’s almost never the ‘average’ players in the losing team, but almost always the weakest or the strongest.
Similar experience- but I also think this is acceptable in most cases. Occasionally if I’m flying I get annoyed that another has opted out. But after a game it seems that if a player has quit out I only lose 5 CSR, instead of 7/8 CSR where I lose with 4v4.
the system thinks that a d4 should always win over all ranks below him. That is nonsense. The problem with this system is the painful csr. If you play well and lose, even being the MVP, you lose -9 csr cause there was a diamond 2 in the other team. And your teammate that was diamond 1 and was at the bottom of the scoreboard only loses -6. The matches should reward and punish based on performance. The good ones will go up, and the ones that need practice will stay in their ranks until they improve. Instead of that, we get a you lose, you suck system.
I find three peaks.
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Before gameplay starts.
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Within the first couple of minutes.
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About 2/3 of the way in.
#2 is the one that about me the most.
But I have no hard data. I’ll have to start taking some stats on times (if ranked ever opens up for me again).
I don’t think it does.
They always talk about matching expected win loss ratios.
eg. A D4 should go 75:25 against a P4
It definitely needs improvement.
Don’t get hung up about who was on which team.
Your team lost.
Your rank is based on team performance. It needs to go down.
Post game CSR change has nothing to do with your performance in that game.
It’s the result, the skill gap between you and the opposition, and where your MMR is in relation to your CSR
It rewards KPM.
Which is pretty much the only metric that showed significant ranking value (over the result of the game).
Other than that you are. You are rewarded and punished on the base of team performance.
Which is what happens.
Losing doesn’t imply you suck.
Going down to a team ranked above you will do little to your rank.
Nor will losing to teams at the same rank.
Just don’t lose to teams ranked below you. They are the one’s that really define your ranking journey.
I think part of the problem is people have an observational bias to the individual results.
A D4 should win 2 out of 4 games vs other D4 teams. 3 out of 4 games against P3 teams. And 1 out of every 4 games vs mid Onyx teams.
And that’s the pattern you should show over a period of time. Like weeks to months.
But human nature is that you jump on that win vs the Onyx team and think you should be Onyx.
You don’t.
Or they look at those losses against the P3 teams and assume the system is unfairly penalising them for those games. Especially if they actually did ok personally.
Your rank doesn’t swing on a single game. And it shouldn’t. It reflects your performance over time.