TrueSkill System Solutions

The point of this thread is to help 343 develop a skill-based ranking system that puts the emphasis on wins. 343 still has to come up with something it seems.

I’m sure you’ve seen those, but here are some of Frankie’s comments on Halo 3’s 1-50 system.

Even though Halo 3’s 1-50 system was great for me and a lot of competitive players, HE IS RIGHT. This can’t be denied. Halo 3’s Ranks just shouted “abuse me, please!” when the TU2 / playlist progression ranks were implemented and the correlation between power-leveling and searching with teammates with a lot of losses was found out.

Therefore, Halo 3’s 1-50 in its current shape and form is OUT OF QUESTION.

Going back to W/L Arena ranks is at the same time. The ranks themselves aren’t that bad, but are FUNDAMENTALLY THE SAME as Halo 3, becoming irrelevant as well.

A stat-based system leads to selfishness and grief. No one wants that either.

From here on out, I will, attempt list various tweaks and fix to the Halo 3’s system to prevent abuse. I hope that 343 can inspire themselves of these to create a skill-oriented ranking system.

Before I do that, a GREAT idea would be to look at Halo 2’s 1-50 system, that I dare call a skill-based progression system (just because there’s XP involved).

Halo 2’s Ranking System

That system was near perfect. However, achieving the highest ranks required INCREDIBLE talent and dedication. Combined with the rampant cheating back then, it was near impossible, even for MLG pros. Perhaps lowering how difficult it is to achieve the highest ranks would be appropriate. Please do consider this option.

Moving onto how we can improve Halo 3’s ranking system.

Want it or not, I will have to reveal the “secret” behind abusing Halo 3’s ranking system in order to explain what would be appropriate to counter it. Skip the spoiler if you know it.

Halo 3’s ranks are TrueSkill based. However, instead of earning a “set” amount of points (XP) towards ranking up, like Halo 2, TrueSkill calculates your odds of winning based on many factors. The most important is you or your team’s W/L record. That’s the main flaw. So all you have to do is trick the system into thinking that your chances of winning are also non-existant, and it will award you VERY GENEROUSLY (in rank increase) for a single win. That is done in a few manners;

• Having a teammate with undetermined Sigma (Read more about TrueSkill)
• Having a teammate with a VERY LOW win percentage or ranking

…and so on.

You may wonder what the problem is with this? Well, it is that it allows players to obtain the max rank with little to no effort, nor time. The direct consequence of that is, as stated by Frankie, the decrease of the relevance of the ranks. I mean, sure a manual Audi R8 is cool, but it’s not next to 10 others, or when driven by someone who can’t even shift gears. Get it?

Here are some proposed tweaks for this.

  1. The Matchmaking skill range “limit”.

The name makes it sound quite terrible. The last thing we’d want is friends who aren’t allowed to search with more skilled friends because the Matchmaking skill range doesn’t let them find games of similar levels. At the same time, we don’t want a level 1 power-leveling with his max rank friend either. Here’s how this would work.

With the “Matchmaking skill range limit” rule, when a team with mixed levels (outside one another’s skill range) would search, players whom ranks are UNDER the Matchmaking skill range limit would have their level TEMPORARILY changed to what the lowest level is that highest-ranked player can match.

Example:

Vetoed, Lv. 40
Costa, Lv. 9

The highest-ranked player (Vetoed)'s Matchmaking skill range is 50-30.

Whilst searching with Vetoed, Costa’s ranked would be considered a 30, for Matchmaking and TrueSkill calculation purposes.

1.b) Teammates’ W/L record / Sigma = irrelevant

This would get rid of all deranker / Sigma abuse. It’s a simple fix to be honest. All it takes is for the players on the same team’s records to become irrelevant to one another. ONLY YOUR OWN PERSONAL record should affect the rate at which you progress. However, part #1 still remains relevant, to prevent “reverse” boosting, as in, searching with a max rank as a low rank to progress faster.

  1. Various Formats > Seasons

Now, people want various playlists in Ranked. None of this repetitive Arena-esque stuff. Sure, Slayer DMRs / BRs are fun and all, but it gets VERY repetitive in the same format, on the same exact maps, over and over. We need at least:

• FFA (6-man)
• Doubles (2v2)
• Team Slayer AND Objective (4v4)
• Squad or BTB (6v6 / 8v8)
• MLG / “Team Hardcore” upon release?

Snipers and SWAT can come later if competitive in Halo 4. But the important of having various playlists means that players don’t get tired of the same genre of competitive / ranked experience all the time. If Halo 3 Ranked had been Team Slayer alone, I’m sure it would have failed at some point, in a similar manner Reach’s Arena has.

Thing is, with multiple hoppers, Seasons would force players to play their favorite playlists over and over due to the lack of time, and also wanting to be the best / highest rank in it. Fret not however, as in the next part, the purpose / idea behind Seasons returns.

  1. Percentiles

Inspired from Halo: Reach, each one of the ranks from 1 to 44 would have a certain percentile ranging from 95 to 5 within them. The percentiles for the ranks from 45 to 50 would become more precise (in a similar manner to Onyx division percentiles) meaning that instead of jumping from 10%, 5% then the next level, it would go 10%, 9%, 8% […], until 1% then onto the next level.

With this, 50s who get them and stop from there would stand out by being in the lower tier of that rank, (decreasing the incentive to purchase accounts) whereas competitive players would strive to be the best of the best.

However, this system implies “limited” spots within a rank / level, in a similar fashion to divisions. This would mean players would lose their levels after being inactive for extended periods of time, countering the need for seasons, as said before.

To support this, the highest skill metric would not be permanent anymore. So if you were to lose your 50, your record won’t claim you are one.

  1. No Progression System incentive

Well seeing how a Reach-esque progression system returns, levels won’t be tied to them like in Halo 3. That means casuals won’t show as much of an interest to Ranked even though it allows them to find matches against similar players. Competitive players however, need to be able to compare skill outside of the actual Ranked playlists. How? Active High Skill on one’s nameplate or when hovering them in lobbies when on Xbox Live.

That’s about all the ideas I have for now.

Feel free to discuss or criticize in a constructive fashion.

PLEASE DO CONTRIBUTE AND KEEP THIS ALIVE. 343 must see it.

Thanks for reading.

TL;DR
(Go back and read it)

To allow a 1-50 TrueSkill system to work again…

  1. If two (or more) players outside of one another’s skill range search together, the players lower than the team’s highest-ranked player’s minimal skill range for a match-up will TEMPORARILY “become” that level for Matchmaking and TrueSkill calculation purposes.

1.b) Teammates’ W/L record / Sigma should have no effect whatsoever on the rate at which others on that team rank up, and should ONLY be relevant to Matchmaking purposes.

  1. Ranked needs various playlists. AT LEAST 6-man FFA, 2v2, 4v4 (TS & OBJ), 6v6 OR 8v8 and MLG. Some of these playlists must remain exclusive to Ranked, with fundamental differences in Social. For example, 8-man FFA in Social, 5v5, etc.

2.5) Seasons need to go.

  1. Percentiles (in the same manner as Arena Division Percentiles) should be applied to ranks. 1 to 44 would go from 95% to 5% in increments of 5. 45 to 50 would be the same until top 10%, which would go in increments of 1 until 1% then the next rank. Like Divisions, spots are limited and players can push one another out of ranks.

3.5) Highest Skill is not permanent anymore and replaced with Active High Skill, coupled with the percentile.

  1. Active High Skill needs to be shown on nameplate or when hovering someone’s gamertag in lobbies when on Xbox Live, to create an incentive.

More to come. If you skipped the OP, and don’t understand something in the TL;DR, or don’t understand the purpose behind one of the ideas, I suggest you go back and read the part marching the number of what you don’t understand… or the whole thing while you’re at it.

Thanks for reading, once more.

^

he makes good points

Seasons can not return in HALO 4

ideas are great. i was amused by the analogy with the Audi as it was very accurate lol. just hoping this gets attention from 343.

p.s if you have an Audi and don’t drive stick your manhood is revoked

To be fair that’s the best idea I’ve heard overall, unfortunately nobody will listen, especially not 343, who are probably too busy adding lots of ‘fun’ ways to earn credits in Halo 4. I would be very surprised to see any sort of skill based ranks at all.

ITT: Players who can’t move on.

You, sir, are a genius. This was incredibly in depth and there are pretty much no flaws in the system. Look, competitive players need visual ranks. It allows them to set goals that they can achieve. Casuals will never understand this because most of them expect everything to be handed to them without any effort or accomplishment.

Dude, thanks for the long post and thanks for taking the time to explain all of this.

Funny how we had a superior ranking system back in 2004.

Put Halo 2’s ranking system in todays game with advancements in anti-cheat preventions and it’s as close to perfect as we’ll probably ever get.

I just don’t get why they don’t see that.

We don’t know what Halo 4s MM system is yet for sure, but i’ll tell you one thing the ranking system is by far the most important factor for online success. It’s literally make or break.

Keep casual with no true skill. I want to be able to find games quiclky on good connection.

also no seasons and how long inactivity were you thinking before people down rank?

> Keep casual with no true skill. I want to be able to find games quiclky on good connection.
>
> also no seasons and how long inactivity were you thinking before people down rank?

False. Finding games quickly isn’t as important finding players of equal skill level. Besides, if they separate it into ranked and casual I’m sure you can just play casual and find your games quickly.

I like the ideas op posted. As long as the system is not like the one from Halo 3 it will work out. In 3 if a person had a lot of losses on their account they can go into a playlist and boost people quickly. I don’t know how losses caused people to get boosted but it did. H4 should be based on win/loss and how many losses or wins your teammates have in their record shouldn’t affect your rank. If your team wins you go up and if you lose you go down, and no exp.

I think EXP based ranks should be attached to Trueskill based ranks again.

That gave a real incentive to try to rank up and improve.

That feeling of finally breaking a level cap (i.e 34 to 35) and getting that Commander rank always felt good.

I agree with everything else you said vetoed. I would have said the same but probably in less words lol.

> and no exp.

But I loved Exp and Exp per playlist / thats part of why I kept playing TS in H3 so I could have the general next to my 50.

Also double xp weekends were so much better then CREDIT JACKPOTS on the weekends

Just saying

Good post. Hope 343 takes a read, I’m tired of Halo going mainstream like CoD etc.

This was very well thought out and I like a lot of your ideas. Hopefully 343 looks at this thread. I think Frankie said they were looking at a lot of different ideas.

Halo 2’s ranking system was much better than Halo 3’s IMO.

> Halo 2’s ranking system was much better than Halo 3’s IMO.

Agreed.

> 2.5) Seasons need to go.

The only thing I don’t like about the Arena seasons in Reach is that there would always come a point in the duration of a season where I felt that any effort I put in would not be reflective of my overall ranking for that season. Imo, telling people that “on this date, nothing that has happened before now matters” creates a sort of “why bother?” feel to it. And if I feel like saying “why bother?” today, what’s to stop me from saying it again tomorrow and the next?

I can’t recall who originally posted the idea, but I saw a thread that suggested only counting your last 100 or so (could be more or less, depending on the playlist and how quickly it can calculate, with an added buffer) games towards your overall rank. From personal playstyle observations, I’ve noticed that I’m someone who gets better at the game by making mistakes and learning from them. If the games I’ve played where I’m still figuring out the mechanics of the game and overall flow of the maps end up not counting towards my rank at some point, it would only be for the better. The only people I can see objecting based on this argument would be those who tend to get progressively worse over time, and that shouldn’t be happening. If you can think of any reasons why someone might not like it, please let me know.

I still support the idea of keeping track of your overall stats, but I would separate them out to be active/inactive (or some other slightly more clever name) stats.

tl;dr Replace seasons with only having the last ‘x’ number games played in that playlist count towards your rank.

Please keep brainstorming, Vetoed. You tend to have some good ideas.

> I like the ideas op posted. As long as the system is not like the one from Halo 3 it will work out. In 3 if a person had a lot of losses on their account they can go into a playlist and boost people quickly. I don’t know how losses caused people to get boosted but it did. H4 should be based on win/loss and how many losses or wins your teammates have in their record shouldn’t affect your rank. If your team wins you go up and if you lose you go down, and no exp.

Can’t believe I overlooked the effect of W/L records on ranking up. I pointed it out too, but forgot to come up with a counter measure in the OP. You’re right however, your teammates’ W/L records shouldn’t affect your rank.

I am liking these ideas. I am with others though in asking how long is it until the rank “campers” start dropping?

Also, would their be something like an increasing game limit to always stay at the top?
What I am really asking is, no Bell curve?
Would this system always fluctuate with everyone playing going up and down?
Some players going up in rank because those above them went down?