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> When a player first starts his traditional strafe sequence, what direction is he going to move first? Who knows, it’s unpredictable, it’s random–so you have to react to his first move and try to hit him, anyway, right? Next move in the strafe pattern? What’s it gonna be? Still unpredictable, right? After that, maybe one can begin to see a pattern form in his strafe. But how can you know what someone’s going to do at the start of their strafe sequence? Have you gone up against people who do the exact same moves to start their strafe sequences every single time? Because, in my opinion, that would be someone who has a poor strafe.
Prediction is not the same thing as knowledge, at least not in the context of predicting the behavior of other players. You’re absolutely right, you will never know what the other player will do, but gaining absolute knowledge is not the goal of prediction here. Predicting the moves of other players, in any game, is not about eliminating uncertanty, but merely about mnimizing it. You’re trying to guess the opponent’s next move based on the current state of the game and their past actions. How good you are depends on how well you perform compared to the baseline of blind guessing.
So, when it comes to strafing, let’s consider the encounter from the start. I conjecture that most players have a slight preference to start their strafe to one direction over the other. The proximity of walls and other obstacles may considerably impact their decision (e.g. if they’re right next to a wall on the right, they will almost certainly strafe to the left). Where you appear to be aiming might influence which direction they will strafe. There are multiple factors which in principle allow you to predict the direction of their first strafe at higher than 50% accuracy. You’re probably not going to be aware of their slight personal preference, but you do see how close to a wall they are standing, and that’ll instantly give you some confidence. So, even during the first move, there’s something to predict.
If the opponent then starts running to the right, they will turn back to the left eventually. When they turn again depends on how much space they have. You can also be pretty sure that they’re probably not going to turn back instantly, nor will they run in the same direction for very long. They might also have some preferred strafing cycle, and experience from previous encounters might clue you in the approximate time they will turn.
What about when they crouch at the apex of their strafe? Here you’re likely not going to predict the crouch better than anyone, unless this player has a really bad habit of crouching at the first turn. Strafing is the first action to which I think the response is entirely reactionary. That is, there is nothing about the past actions of the player or the environment to suggest that they might crouch at that exact moment. Of course, while being significantly less predictable than running left and right, crouching slows down your speed, and is therefore a risky move, because it’s easy to react to if it takes too long.
Jumping is another move that can be done which, I would argue, you can’t predict really predict. You can very confidently predict many scenarios where the opponent will not jump, such that when they’re right in the open, because jumping puts a player on a completely predetermined trajectory for such a long time. However, the clues that they might jump are scarce. Perhaps they will jump behind a corner, where the rest of their trajectory is blocked from your view, but there’s not a strong reason for you to expect them to do it.
The same, of course, applies to a thrust. At no point is there a strong reason to expect that the opponent will thrust. The response to a thrust is therefore very much reactionary, unlike the response to the basic left to right movement in normal strafing. The response to crouching and jumping is also reactionary, however. But crouching and jumping have a very strong downside to them if not used correctly. Due to the fast speed of the Thruster Pack, there is no such significant downside to thrusting as there is to crouching and jumping, and therefore even less skilled players can make reasonably effective use of the Thruster Pack without significant danger.