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> > 3) Maybe, but in 2007 alone we had Halo 3, COD 4, Team Fortress 2, Quake Wars, and Medal of Honor Airborne. All coming in to go against games like Rainbow 6 Vegas, COD 2, COD 3 and Battlefield 2. So I mean, people had options. So obviously Halo 2 players returned to Halo 3, then Halo 3 also picked up a ton of new players as well. Why? they had lots of options?, why Halo 3? other than hype, as I said, it was the simple yet deep gameplay. As I go in to later, Halo Reach and Halo 4 saw bigger declines in their population. So did that have more competition? FPS MP games out against Halo Reach = COD MW2/Black Ops, BF Bad Company 2 and AvP, much less competition than Halo 3 had. Halo 4 = COD MW3/Black Op 2, and Battlefield 3, that’s even less competition (and as I point out, it performed the worst).
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> Would you also say that in 2012 players chose Blacks Ops 2 over Halo 4 for its deeper gameplay? I ask this because I think there’s a real danger of being overly subjective and inconsistent when speculating over why Halo 3 was as popular as it was, and Halo 4 wasn’t.
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> Strictly speaking, based on popularity alone, there’s no a priori reason to conclude that since Halo 3 was the most popular game on the Xbox 360 in 2007, and Halo 4 wasn’t in 2012, that people preferred Halo 3 over Halo 4. All you can say with certainty is that back in 2007, Halo 3 was more appealing than all other shooters released in the same year, and that in 2012 Halo 4 was not as appealing as some of the other shooters released that year. However, when you deduce that this must mean Halo 3 was more appealing than Halo 4, you assume that Halo 4 was unpopular because it was worse than Halo 3 in the eyes of players. But it’s equally possible that that the perceived quality of Halo games didn’t change in that time, and instead the rest of the FPS genre simply caught up and surpassed Halo.
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> So, while it’s true that Halo 4 didn’t have significantly more competition than Halo 3 did, it is entirely possible that the competition Halo 4 faced was more competent than what Halo 3 faced. (And “more competent” here simply means more capable of holding the attention of players, not any subjective evaluation of quality.) Without any additional information, we can’t rule out this possibility.
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> In general, answering the “why” of the population decline is pure speculation. There are internal factors that might play part such as changes in the game and franchise fatigue, as well as external factors such as trends. None of these can be ruled out as negligible based on the available data. Nobody knows why Halo isn’t as popular as it used to be.
It is speculation, and it is possible that the quality of COD games improved. Though looking at the Metacritic score for the Modern Warfare and Black Ops games, MW1, 2 and 3 all hold out at 94. Black Ops goes from 87 to 83, to 81 as the series goes on. I understand that Metacritic scores aren’t perfect but it at least gives us the understanding that as a whole, the quality of the franchise didn’t improve to rival Halo. So it’s all down to that ‘perception of quality’ for the larger gaming audience.
As I said Halo 4 sold fantastically, but had a huge drop off. Based on what I experienced, and from what is supported based of Major Nelson’s “Most Played Xbox Live” Blog ranging from 2007 and 2012. Halo 3 kept No 1 spot, even against a strong COD community for a full 3 years. Only when Halo faltered with Halo Reach did it lose this spot. We all remember the backlash Reach received. If Halo 3 had seen a slow but definite decline in its popularity against the newer COD games then I’d totally understand that the franchise and gameplay had seen fatigue. That wasn’t the case. It was a change that sparked the decline in perceived quality.
So between 2007 and late 2009 players loved picking up and playing Halo 3. Then in 2010 those players have seemingly started to look elsewhere. In 2010, COD’s the same as it’s ever been and Black Ops 1 was not a huge departure for its franchise. The story and theme was getting a lot of attention, but the gameplay was the same as always. Not something to pull away players overnight.
It could be a coincidence, or just confirmation bias on my part, but to me that’s a clear correlation. I’m not naive, I don’t think the change in gameplay was the only issue. I think there were other outside factors and the differences in the Halo and COD communities that helped push people. However I think this change in gameplay started the issues off, and continue to exacerbate the problems facing Halo. Players had two communities. The Halo community talking about Halo Reach and eventually Halo 4, and how the games aren’t as good as they use to be (and players are picking up these games, trying them and leaving when they aren’t the same). Then they have the COD community talking about their sweet 360 no scopes and posting them on youtube, and since all the games play the same you only have to learn the maps to compete. All other learned skills are transferable (something I think has been a integral part of COD’s popularity)
Speculation, sure, but I’d prefer to call them educated guesses since I have looked through as much data as is humanly possible to come to my conclusion. Which is that the mismanagement and changes to core mechanics are at the heart of that decline.