> 2533274801176260;8270:
> > 2533274812819411;8268:
> > Besides, the game play IMO inst really the problem here, its the story direction and lack of variety at launch that i think has people more up in arms.
>
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> Halo 4 had a pretty great story and tons of different modes at launch, yet still lost 50% of its players after ten days(!) and a total 95% within its first year.
> Bad story and lack of modes are just additional issues that H5G has compared to its predecessor. They are not the sole reason for the drop.
> I don’t know if sprint (or the gameplay in total) is the reason. But as long as 343 refuses to release a classic game, we will never find out.
It still pains me to see people referencing that bigoted thread that lacks any notion of scientific honesty, understanding of population metrics (not to mention the data right in front of their eyes), and is so blinded by its own agenda that it presents obviously factually incorrect information about the popularity of Halo 3 and Reach (probably due to the aforementioned lack of understanding of population metrics).
First of all, the whole the validity of the statement “lost X% of players” based on any arbitrary population figure (daily peak, 24 hour UU, weekly UU, monthly UU, etc.) would warrant a whole separate discussion of its own. “Lost X% of players” implies that X% quit playing altogether, but it should be clear that the peak population in no way describes how many players quit. After all, if all players take away 30% of their daily play time, this will have a diminishing effect on the daily peak population, but I think we can agree that this in no way means that any amount of players have quit playing. To answer the question: “what portion of players actually quit?” we’d first need to define what counts as “quitting”. Has a player who only plays once a month on average “quit”? Once a year? Once a week? Where do we draw the line. This is a very complicated thing to agree on, and after we have agreed on that, we don’t have the data. It’s not possible to infer solely from peak population data how many players have quit altogether.
The only sensible, honest, and nonsensationalizing way to put it is “the daily peak population of Halo 4 decreased to 50% from its launch day value in 10 days, and to 5% in a year”. People will still interpret that as wrongly as they wish, but at least at that point you’re not commiting the sin of misrepresenting the data.
Now, the second thing to consider is that “50% in ten days” and “95% in a year” sound like huge numbers, but there’s no context for them whatsoever. When we look at the 24 hour UU counts (which are less prone to change, by the way, because players decreasing their hours played per day don’t affect these), we see that the 24hUU count of Halo 3 was 70% of the launch day value after ten days, and 50% after a year (mind you, the numbers vary significantly from day to day). For Halo Reach, the corresponding numbers were 110% (funnily, Reach was still on the rise after ten days), and 20% respectively. This isn’t to say that 5% of the launch day peak population for Halo 5 isn’t something significant, but the purpose of these numbers is to give some context for how the player retention of Halo games has been in general.
Finally, I have to say more about that factual inaccuracy I pointed out. The creator of that thread you linked failed in two respects. First, they failed to understand the difference between daily peak population and 24 hour UU count. Secondly, Halo 3 did not have a 24 hour UU count of 1.1 million between its 40th, and the release of ODST. The closest number is 1.04 million at 562th day. For Halo Reach, on the other hand, the highest reliable number that can be found after a year is about 595,000 at 486th day.
And this is why I kindly ask, as much as I wouldn’t want to toot my own horn, next time you need to reference Halo 4 population data (or any Halo population data for that matter), please do me a favor and use the data I’ve gathered, organized, and analyzed, not to drive any agenda, but because I was genuinely curious.