Hey I thought this skill based matchmaking system made things 50/50 I’m like 3 and 15 or worse and only did bad twice due to nasty servers…… ummmm waaah
And again. Sure -5 to -6 csr all night but 2 nights in a row. This is out of hand honestly. Clearly the systems broken if these ppl are around these ranks. Lots of boosted ppl derailing now but this is getting out of hand now honestly
Meh.
Everyone has bad days.
And/or a bit of bad luck. The system only matches you on rank. It can’t predict how team-mates are going to gel.
Breezing back through January you’ve pretty much been 50:50 until the last couple of days. I’m sure if I kept trawling I’d find some good days. And some more bad days. And so on…
This is my absolute worst stretch especially for putting together good consistent games minus 2 very late Saturday night cross continent games. That’s obvious how that goes I’m sure you know of all ppl. I’m pretty bummed right now. If it was 50/50 I’d be ranking up since I flipped my hidden rank just doing what you suggested. It’s rather depressing when I was at d5 again and now I’m almost d2 and of literally no fault of my own as I’m sure you could see
2 and 16 stretch. That’s an extremely large sample size my friend. Larger then just random bad luck
Just got thrown on a server with 300 ping had to quit like no one in North America was playing. I’m going to play something else for a week or 2 even though I don’t want to. Been a slice may be back in a few weeks chow
Atleast boring yawn fest call of duty works fml 
It’s really not. It’s unlikely but not impossible. I’ve had plenty of bad runs before. In December I had a run of 3 wins 17 losses.
It sucks but it can and does happen by chance. Somewhere in the world there will be players with even worse losing steaks through no fault of their own and that applies to every game.
Actually, a very small sample size.
And as you’ve alluded to - it’s more than luck. You may have had an off day or two - combined with less than ideal server conditions; connections and/or the types of players that were available to be your team-mates.
I had a run the other day where I wasn’t 100% (recovering from COVID) and just happened to get a lot of CTF (the worst game to solo) and kept getting the same handful of team mates (who just didn’t gel) in games with very bad latency.
But you push through.
Good luck with Karma on the on the other side. 
Thanks for the good words, but I guess my friends all had a point that lipstick doesn’t fix a game where the fundamentals don’t work. As good as it looks and can be why play something that doesn’t actually work. Guess time will tell but probably too late
It’s not that small a sample size. If it were pure luck, that would be a .00005 probability (e.g., 18 flips, 2 heads). Obviously there’s a lot more to it, but stretches of 18 or 25 games with badly skewed results really shouldn’t happen in a good matchmaking system with healthy population.
But, we don’t have healthy population, and thus ranked is pretty non-functional from a “my rank is meaningful” perspective. Just too much noise. Best you can do enjoy the competitive games you get, even if they’re less and less common these days, and ignore your rank movement.
I don’t think people naturally “get” random distributions. It’s not part of our DNA.
Like, if you flip 200 coins there is a 1 in 3 chance you will get a run of 9.
That still feels weird to me!
And then with a complex thing like playing a video game. There’s form, luck (gelling with team mates or getting preferred modes), and swings in network conditions. All of which can put pressure on a result.
Move it away from 50:50. At least in isolated patches.
But overall it should still balance out. Good patches vs bad patches.
It always makes me smile when people go bananas over a run of losses. Every excuse you can imagine. Except of course that they may have just not been playing well.
And on the flip side. Runs of wins are always self determined.!
Nothing to do with a bit of luck in getting good teammates (or bad enemies). No consideration that network latency may have been working for them that evening. A bit of luck in regards to preferred maps and modes.
Ego and poor understanding of statistics. Not a good combo.
Add in emotion responses. Increasing frustrations. And hey presto - we almost have the perfect conditions for a self fulfilling prophecy.
And, of course, you’re right. Low population is causing even more havoc. You get sustained swings in team make up. And players will do better with some and not so good with others.
My rank this Season sucks. But it’s still a true reflection of where I’m at. For a solo player at 200+ ms latency in a small population geared towards higher skilled players (who are still here).
Sad, but true.
Yes I did set that a few weeks back. All good I’m just going with the flow. Unfortunately when you play lights out during a stretch like that, it gets pretty insane
Well, the point of an ELO or similar system like TS2.0 is to assemble matches that achieve as close to a 50/50 probability of winning as possible. Yes, there are uncontrollable variables and noise. But consistently poor play or decreasing skill isn’t really one of those–it’s assumed your skill changes and that’s reflected in your changing ELO–that’s how it works by definition, right? If I play 5 bad games and lose them all, my new ranking will still be plugged into achieve as close to a 50/50 win probability as possible. I agree people don’t get random distributions–but I gave you the actual probability of an 18/20 W/L distro as the person described above; in a true 50/50 it is an extreme statistical improbability. As I recall, I once had a stretch of 39/50 losses, which should happen about 3 in 1000 times. Even your current run has only a 2% chance.
All this is to say, and this isn’t news, TS2.0 is not functioning at a place where most of your matches seem to be achieving the desired 50/50 (or reasonably close) output very consistently, at least for a subset of people who have experienced those extreme streaks. As we’ve debated before, there does seem to be anecdotal (but observed through HaloTracker) pockets where folks get hosed. Your current streak looks like one of those, although maybe rust plays a factor?
Also, I’m not sure I’d agree your rank at this stage is a particularly good reflection of skill. I still see people playing -vastly- different than expected from their rank pretty frequently, in both directions, probably caused by the above scenarios. Plus, since TS2.0 adjusts for squad, your solo queue shouldn’t matter (except that now, it probably gets associated with greater quit probabilities on your team that the model may not have originally baked in).
The fact that 3v4s and quits still impact CSR/MMR, even if it’s nominally reduced, is a big QOL they could fix. Even if it’s not that big in the long run, when there’s a rampant quitting problem, why not just throw those games out and reduce player frustration? Suppose that’s a rhetorical question since I genuinely don’t think there is really much support for Infinite planned from here on out.
Yep. That is how it’s supposed to work.
In a perfect world (population).
More like a 200ms chance
People definitely get “locked” into pockets of skill.
You have a bad run… and your MMR drops… but there are no easy match ups at that level. Or you at least hit a pocket of team spread (for and against) that makes it hard to win.
I’ve definitely noticed if I get a bad run of form I start to get matches where I’m up against a team where I can pretty much beat everyone except one stand out - who invariably wins the game for them off their own bat.
If I had a co-operative squad we might stand a chance - isolate out that player and keep them at bay… but going solo is suicide.
It’s not the fault of TS2 or the MM. It’s purely the low population that creates match ups that feed back bad data.
In the end I think it would all balance out and still give an accurate rank - but the journey there is not going to be smooth.
I agree they could do better here.
Penalise the quitter harder.
And they only need to really penalise team-mates if they are squadded with the quitters. Which would stop people quitting strategically.
It only becomes a problem when people start bullying players to quit. It did seem to happen a lot in Halo 5…
I’ve been getting multiple fake Onyx players on my team who, at best, go 10 and 32 during an oddball match with only 30 seconds of ball time. Meanwhile, I drop 40-25 with almost two minutes of ball time—no idea how these people end up in my lobbies.
People need to start investigating so called “desync” as it’s blatantly worse in some games. Melees outright not registering, rubber banding out of cover when you’re one shot, the br doing zero damage, outrageous spawns during crucial moments in the match, over shield taking an extra 2 seconds to activate, etc. It’s too much of a coincidence to be happening against players that are way worse than you. Everybody is too busy complaining about content to see what’s actually going on. We can see what Activision is doing to Modern Warfare. Let’s not put anything past 343.
0 points for a win where other team all quit. Never seems to be the case when I’m in the quitters side…. And the full moon is back out. I don’t know how on earth some of these ppl get anywhere near diamond rank. There golds at best. I’m so confused by all this really you think the “system” if working would have sifted through them by now. It’s honestly punishing. I don’t want to hear the system works stuff guys, it clearly isn’t working as intended I’ve grinded far enough where massively negative ppl with horrible service records and stats are achieving ranks they have no business in doing. Sad state I say.
Im not expecting to win every game. I just want fair games; shots properly registering and doing tthe damage they’re supposed to do, melee’s working properly (for both sides, call it like it is) etc. It can certainly feel frustrating at times…
All the above, most of all properly ranked teammates ugh the worst thing to bring a guy down in every manner of the game. Carrying them doesn’t matter you still lose more then you should points wise it’s hilarious.
Well that is the tricky part; people can simply have a bad game once in a while. It’s like a sports player or anything else. So even though a player may be “Plat 3” or whatever it shouldnt be expected that they have a knockout game each time.
I’d say the difference is pairing a platinum on my team twice in a row with high diamonds and understandably he gets mutilated against onyx/diamond players only on the other team. Makes no sense, you just can’t carry that hard enough, especially because they keep running in like super hero’s alone to win it all, then all that’s left is a cape flying around in the wind every 20 seconds from super Dave or mark or Lisa whomever they consider themselves to be
See I never have that problem; myself being a Plat1/2 player this season, I’ve never been matched up against anything higher then Diamond~2 when playing solo. MAYBE if the other people are teamed up one or 2 guys mightt be a little higher then that. But the game never puts me against anywhere close to Onyx level matches.