Just slay out and win the match, none of the theoretical numbers matter. You have to get a lot of kills while winning against better teams to rank up.
Simple as.
The problem comes from how the SBMM system hamstrings you or kicks you back down a peg whenever you’re playing too well.
It combines them into the two most even squads it can.
You can’t read too much into the % chance put out by HaloTracker - that just uses CSR to guestimate. It doesn’t know the actual MMR or the weightings being applied (eg. for form and squads).
My last game with the stat on HaloTracker had my team down as a 62% chance to win. The in game average MMR’s were 1132 to 1130.
And M1STA has been spruiking that their results are locked with the % chances - but I looked up their last 10 games with the % chances. Not only were they not as bad as they were saying - but the “underdog” actually won in half the games.
But of course. It’s not going to get every game exactly 50:50. And nor do you want it to. You need a little bit of wriggle room to help the ranking system work.
New’s flash - team that works well together wins!
Waypoint simplifies their graph to show the number of kills. The “certain period of time” is how long the game went for.
It makes it simple to compare it to the actual number scored.
And given the poor math literacy displayed by many in these forums I can see why they haven’t gone down the track of KPM and DPM.
But you can simply divide the expected kills by the game time (in minutes) to get the KPM they used. You can do the same with your actual kills to get your actual KPM. The problem is that the expected kills is a rounded number so the precision for comparing the two is poor (at least for a single data set).
I’m only early into my stats collection for Season 2.5 - just a dozen games so far. But already there is a strong correlation (0.71) between KPM and the average MMR of your opponents.
Looking at my data I can see I’m going at around 1.3 KPM.
So that’s a simple baseline.
I’m keeping a close eye on that as well.
Wondering if network conditions are factored into the equations.
Only a small data set but if the games I’ve had with horrendous ping (we are talking 250 to 300ms) my actual minus expected kills have been; -2, +1, 0, and -1.
Again. Very small data set. But encouraging numbers.
Match making system’s can’t predict how a team will gel on the field.
Hopefully you don’t get too many “blow outs”. But the problem is amplified in objective games as opposed to Slayer (where the result hinges more on team work). And then you have the problem of low population leading to wider ranges of ranks.
I agree it’s not ideal. But the important part is that it can fall apart for either team. The match maker is not deliberately setting one team up to fail.
I live in a place that’s a long way from servers. So I deal with high pings a lot.
You do need to adjust the way you play.
Those games that I get thrown in at 250ms. I have to spend more time holding the oddball. Or providing support fire from a distance. If I try and play normal close to mid range fighting - I’m going to lag myself (and my team) out of the game. The important part is making sure my team knows - I send a message from the loading screen -“Sorry high ping - may need to play support”.
You also need to “trust” the disclaimer that Halo Tracker put right above their graphs; “Distribution does not track 100% of all players and may be skewed towards higher skill levels”.
The reality is also that most of the people using HaloTracker are Platinum and above.
Here is how Infinite sat in reality;
https://dotesports.com/halo/news/343-industries-reveals-halo-infinite-ranked-distributions
And that’s before their adjustments for Season 1.5 (and whatever they have done in the two resets since).
But I also concede that we don’t know what the recent drop off in numbers has done to said distribution. It would likely skew things more to right late in the season. But early in the new Season (like now) the population is going to be pushed left.
Why wouldn’t it be? They can play and earn their MMR in social just like everyone else does.
You would hope they are always looking at improving / building on the system.
But the announcement of the “experiment” was bizarre. Why even mention it?
Unless, I guess, the changes were so marked that it may have broken the system. 
But for 48 hours before a CSR reset - no one would have noticed any changes. And I didn’t see any post that did.
Yep. Just do it as fast as you can to maximise your KPM.
And you were doing so well… Sigh.
One of the curiosities I’ve had when it comes to the win% chance, is that maybe that percentage more true in some instances than others. Kinda like what you’re saying.
For example
A team on match 15 of the season thats said to have a 40% win chance. Is it possible that the tracker is using the current standing as the estimation for the match, whille the csr is more likley behind the MMR, but its calculating the win% only on current standing rank (rather than the mmr thats to the right and ahead) which would mean…its not a true 40% or whatever it may say…but…its presented for a reason)
Instance 2
A team on match 350, with a 40% win chance against another team thats also many games in. The csr has probably floated a certain range by this point back and forth for each player, and current standing is a fair amount quite close to the MMR…resulting in a more true 40% win chance.
When the win chancs is low, it does bother players…but…if players are never seen as the underdog, they’d never really rank up in this current system either. It has to be a result of the match maker trying to hone in on where the player needs to go for instance 1…meanwhile instance 2 can be either created as an opportunity to still increase MMR and rank…or…if its a very low win chance…an issue with population and search time. So it threw the match together despite the odds favoring 1 team much more when it comes to 2 established teams in the season facing one another.
Kinda just random thoughts here…but…really have been wanting to bring it up to see if it makes any sense or difference in perspective when it comes to those estimated win chances.
When it comes to the match maker pulling teams together and people feeling if its fair or unfair…all that comes to mind for me is that its just bad to play as a solo player in halo. Its a literal slot machine. Like at least if your own 4 man team is the true underdog…you got comms…history together…used to each others play style…whereas a solo player its just a nightmare at times. Too much out of your control. Then the network issues is just…bahh…the games got issues exacerbated by a low population… Even tho it may feel 1 sided, I’m sure all of us suffer from it regardless how good our own internet is or where we are in the world.
I hope the game has a resurrection soon.
It’s a fun stat for sure.
But the last game on Halo Tracker has me at 60% chance of winning - but the team’s average MMRs were literally 2 points apart.
The things you are suggesting do make sense… but I wouldn’t put too much effort into trying to interpret the stat against the results. If it really is just averaging the CSR and comparing the two values then you are not going to find the patterns of behaviour you are looking for.
Maybe if HaloTracker are actually validating the result by comparing the actual results to predicted? That would be great. But I haven’t found any record of that.
That’s always been the nature of the beast. It’s a team game. Whichever team adjusts and works together best is going to have the advantage.
And this has always been more true in Objective games.
In Slayer a good player can carry just by killing more people.
I’ve never really taken notice - but I imagine that in the old days of Slayer and Objective being in separate play lists - solo players probably favoured Slayer. It’s certainly what I tended to do.
So say we all.
You keep saying this like it has any real relevance.
If this was relevant at all the person sitting in a tank or wasp every btb match racking up 50 kills would have a massively high MMR.
Because the winning team has all high Diamond players and the other has a plat 5 and low diamonds maybe?
The MMR might even out, but the ranks don’t, and so your team got railroaded.
Was it fun?
I keep saying it because it is the only weighting in TrueSkill2 for personal performance.
I think it’s important that people realise that.
They likely do have an inflated MMR vs their ability to beat teams of a certain level.
If they spent those games out of the wasp they would almost certainly have a lower rank than they do now.
My team won.
Not in this case. One of their players quit and the rest of the team stopped holding. With three zones we hit 250 very quickly.
Personal KD of 6 though. Didn’t help me though because my KPM was -yoink-.
Oh. You probably mean my last game. Have no idea what the % chance to win there was. HaloTracker didn’t put one up.
As for the game itself. Yep. That one was pretty fun. We went down 4-0 but the first two Hills were hotly contested. Could have gone either way. And I feel a bit bad because I probably cost us the second zone with a couple of crucial 1v1’s lost.
The third zone got away from us and then I suspect a few of my team mates switched off for the fourth - they won that one very quickly.
I was happy that I did my bit. I played the objective and pretty much nailed my expected kills and deaths.
Don’t get me wrong. I’ve been on the receiving end of 4-0 thrashing where we didn’t stand a chance. But this wasn’t one of those games.
It says your team lost
You’ll never rank up if you’re happy with losing
Win the game with a high kd
Simple as
My original comment referred to the last game where HaloTracker gave odds of winning. That’s the second last game on my list. Strongholds on Recharge.
I did indeed lose my last game, King of the Hill on Live Fire. But HaloTracker didn’t put up and % winning chance for that one.
Unless it displays things differently for different users? I’m not a member there.
No.
But I can also take comfort that I won’t rank down. Two evenly matched teams and I maintained expected personal performance.
And the system doesn’t care about the score. 4-5 in overtime is just the same on your ranking as 0-4.
No kids. Stay in school. Learn how ratios work.
A high KD does not imply a high KPM.
It just doesn’t.
Continuing on from our conversation about different MMRs for each game mode… it looks like we may also have different KPM expectations.
Which makes sense. Each MMR is going to be dependent on it’s KPM.
I only have a handful of results. But if I calculate my KPM from expected kills I have 1.55 for Strongholds, 1.5 for KOTH, and 1.3 for Slayer. Each one individually correlates with opponent average MMR by nearly 1.0
Again. Very early. Tiny sample size. I’m going to need a few weeks and closer to 50 games in each game mode.
But a very interesting trend so far.
Reading back through this thread and it’s scary.
I swear that 4 out of 3 people here on Waypoint don’t understand fractions.
I wonder if slayers is always lower since there’s a kill cap of 50 per game for the team to share, while the other modes you’re surpassing slayer kills usually. Interesting finds man.
Anyone know if they changed up the system with the season reset? Last night I played and I actually gained a full rank with 4 games. Or did I just get lucky?
They’re made unknown changes recently in a hot fix before the rank reset and doubles update. We’re about a week into it.
At the end of the day I’m just trying to win every game and I’ll do whatever I can to influence that. Now I tend to play a lot of BTB and recently I’ve only been winning about a third of my games. My last game today I had a nightmare spree going 37 and 6 in a clutch tie game.
you’re absolutely right, the goal should be to get as few kills as possible in order to never gain CSR
One would not want to face evenly matched opponents in the future, so its best to play it safe
you killed a lot of people and won the games
simple as
Never thought i’d create a topic with over 300 replies…
True. It only tracks people who are looking up their own stats or someone else’s
So if you’re a platinum player and never even heard of halo tracker and nobody looked you up, you’re excluded from the overall results.
But let’s say I went on there and looked you up by gamertag. Then it’ll generate a page of stats for you and you’ll be added in all the statistics they have.
Yep.
But more importantly, in those objective games the kills come to you. So your rates are going to be faster.
Not that we’re aware of.
But this early in the season your MMR is probably still sitting above your CSR.
A chunky run of form and you could milk the chance. A win can net you +15 CSR, so you can do it 4 games.
Nice.
You should look it up on Waypoint to see how much better than expected you went.
True.
But you are more likely to look up someone you just played with - further skewing to the right.
And don’t forget everyone who has their stats hidden as “private”. I would think you are more likely to do that from the left hand side of the curve.
You stubbornness to concede is amazing.