343i/Microsoft, I am very thankful that you guys will ensure that the next Halo is coming to PC. However, I am extremely disappointed that a very obvious mistake is again being repeated, contrary to all common sense. I speak of the decision to make Halo Infinite a Windows 10-only Windows Store exclusive. I can confidentially state that this decision alone, regardless of how good the actual final game comes out to be, will absolutely kill the PC player population, and I am certain that your analytics department, if they aren’t stuffed to the brim with yes-men, will concur with my analysis.
Why am I so confident that any release on the Windows storefront will not reach sufficient sales to retain a good playerbase?
3 reasons:
A) 47% of all PCs running Windows still run Windows 7.
By gating Halo: Infinite behind Windows 10 right off the bat you are effectively losing half your customer base. Any sane marketing/analytics department knows that to ensure a successful launch on PC, the requirements listed must not target the extreme high-end of gamers, for the vast majority are very slow to upgrade.
B) Steam controls half to 70% of the PC market for downloading games
I get that you guys want the Windows Store to be a success. However, I have to ask bluntly: how much did Halo Wars 2 sell, as the only example thus far of a Halo game being sold exclusively through the Windows Store thus far? I can bet anything that it was below expectations. In this day and age, to not release your game on Steam is to be satisfied with lower sales figures, lower player retention, and a lower player population. But what about Origin and Blizzard’s app, you might ask? Both are laughable. Blizzard’s app needs free to play games to drive players there, from Heroes of the Storm, to Starcraft 2, to Hearthstone, to even Warcraft (up to level 20 and also free weekends like right now). Is Microsoft going to make Halo: Infinite a F2P title? I doubt it. Meanwhile, Origin over the past few years has been throwing out free games, desperate to attract more players, and their original games like Mass Effect 1+2, Dragon Age origins, etc. are still on Steam. And these are big fish, and they can’t even put up a sizeable challenge to Steam’s dominance. Both EA and Activision/Blizzard have been in the PC business for decades while Microsoft is only recently starting to come back.
C) The current state of Halo 5: Forge on PC is a window to the future of Halo Infinite’s success (or lack thereof)
If the current decision to have Halo Infinite be Windows 10-only, Windows Store only is not reversed, I ask for those concerned to please take a look at Halo 5: Forge’s playerbase, for a look at what will likely result. Less than 100 (I’m being generous, it’s more like less than 50) players at any given time, with only maybe 5 servers going on during peak and 1-3 servers during downtime. Despite having all the features of Halo 5: Forge, despite having all the gameplay of Halo 5 multiplayer, despite having a server browser, this game is just plain unpopular, for it is gated behind Windows 10 and the Windows Storefront. And it’s FREE. Now imagine charging 50-60 bucks for the Halo Infinite experience. Yeah, no.
Please, a plea from a desperate Halo fan wanting to see Halo Infinite succeed on PC: don’t repeat the same mistakes as before. (I didn’t even go into the Halo 2 Vista debacle).