After reading the first two chapters of Glasslands and analyzing various released material, I think I can piece together what the Haloverse is like post Halo 3.
The Arbiter is eventually overthrown. This can be supported by The Return. In the Return we see that in 2559 the Elites are hunting down the Brutes. In Chapter 2 of Glasslands, we read that the Arbiter is wanting peace with the humans and that the Elites should not go to any kind of war. ONI also wants to overthrow the Arbiter or something like that.
Chapter 2 takes place in January of 2553 while Halo 3’s ending takes place in March. So it could be possible that ONI abandoned the plan since it seems that Lord Hood and the Arbiter are on good terms.
Elites such as Jul 'Mdama, work with ONI secretly, and try to overthrow the Arbiter, which is unsuccessful. Because they know nothing but war, they leave Sanghelios and hunt down the Brutes. This separates the Elites into two factions. The Arbiter stays on Sanghelios and attempts to rebuild their society to pre-Covenant status. The Arbiter is unaware of ONI’s attempt at overthrowing him so he is still friendly with the UNSC.
The Elite outcasts are still on the hunt 6 years later as seen in The Return. Some, such as the Shipmaster from the Return, are possibly beginning to feel regret over what they had done to the humans.
We can see from both stories that humans are finding and using Forerunner tech on their ships, and possibly weapons.
After this I am uncertain on what is going on when Halo 4 occurs.
Does anybody agree with me on what I’ve theorized?
> Elites such as Jul 'Mdama, work with ONI secretly, and try to overthrow the Arbiter, which is unsuccessful.
This part is incorrect. Jul wants to wipe out humanity before it can recover. It’s a Sangheili named Avu 'Telcam, bishop of a pre-Covenant religion, that wants the Arbiter dead.
That said, I agree that any overthrowing of the Arbiter likely fails and that the relationship between humans and Sangheili will likely remain ‘neutral’ at best due to what we see in ‘The Return’.
> > Elites such as Jul 'Mdama, work with ONI secretly, and try to overthrow the Arbiter, which is unsuccessful.
>
> This part is incorrect. Jul wants to wipe out humanity before it can recover. It’s a Sangheili named Avu 'Telcam, bishop of a pre-Covenant religion, that wants the Arbiter dead.
>
> That said, I agree that any overthrowing of the Arbiter likely fails and that the relationship between humans and Sangheili will likely remain ‘neutral’ at best due to what we see in ‘The Return’.
Sorry about that mistake. But from what we’ve seen in The Return, those Elites are doing the complete opposite of the Arbiter’s wishes.
> > > Elites such as Jul 'Mdama, work with ONI secretly, and try to overthrow the Arbiter, which is unsuccessful.
> >
> > This part is incorrect. Jul wants to wipe out humanity before it can recover. It’s a Sangheili named Avu 'Telcam, bishop of a pre-Covenant religion, that wants the Arbiter dead.
> >
> > That said, I agree that any overthrowing of the Arbiter likely fails and that the relationship between humans and Sangheili will likely remain ‘neutral’ at best due to what we see in ‘The Return’.
>
> Sorry about that mistake. But from what we’ve seen in The Return, those Elites are doing the complete opposite of the Arbiter’s wishes.
The last time I looked, the Sangheli are a feudal culture and that what the Kaidon of one clan wants to do is not completely binding to the every other clan. Unless the rank Arbiter has returned to being the greatly influential role it held as we led to believe it was at the time of The Duel, I highly doubt that the Arbiter can make the Kaidons support him or do as he wants.