I’m not sure if you’re trolling, but I will take the optimist point of view and say that what you said wasn’t meant to troll.
With that said, it means that you are being a realist. If in fact you are thinking this through logically, then I commend you for your line of thought, because it’s the truth.
It’s not opinion, it’s the hands down truth.
Halo 4 will sell because it’s Halo 4.
Halo 4 will be successful because it is appealing to a much larger audience. You are absolutely right about your points. Everybody wants to be a “50”, but not everyone can be a “50”. The game might be balanced enough to be fun for both sides of the casual/competitive coin.
Alot of people will hate and ignore these facts, and most likely because a game that they grew up with is evolving beyond what they are familiar with. It’s still going to be Halo. It’s still going to play like Halo. 343 would be absolutely stupid to totally abandon the approach to that feel, and Bungie did the same things. Let’s think about it:
Halo CE: Groundbreaking
Halo 2: Groundbreaking, but changed a lot of things. Because of this, there was even a website called Halo2sucks.com created. Yet, Halo 2 is still remembered as one of the Best Halo’s to date.
Halo 3: Groundbreaking, but again there were a lot of changes. Some were big, and some were small. There were a lot of people who disliked Halo 3 for the changes, yet Halo 3 is still held up high to this day as being an awesome game.
Halo 3 ODST: Groundbreaking in that Bungie finally introduced Firefight. ODST’s campaign was hands down AMAZING, and the Firefight mode is still considered to be the best version to date. Even though the game lacked a multiplayer like previous titles, ODST held it’s own and is revered as a top notch game, even though some would argue that it was a damn good add-on.
Halo Reach: probably the most controversial title as of yet. It disenchanted a lot of long time players because it took steps in a direction that a lot of people didn’t agree with. HOWEVER, even though it has it’s flaws, Reach is still a AAA title. POST TU Reach has only improved upon the game, and as a Halo title it holds up. Not as well as H2, or H3, but it still manages to hold an impressive population.
Halo 4: This title will probably keep people leery of it’s changes until it’s release and subsequent lifespan on XBL has been realized. It’s going to do things that a lot of people might not understand or appreciate, but as a Halo title, it will be successful.
TL;DR, Halo 4 will be a success, haters gonna hate, and when the game is released, there will be people eating humble pie.
So quell your own fears and let’s just see how it turns out.