Regarding Halo 4 I wont go into the playlist populations, but its obvious the people that are currently playing Halo 4 is simply the previoius Reach population and some change. So lets cut to the chase, Halo 4 wasnt popular with new-comers.
You are probably asking why random 343 employee, I will tell you. On launch the people that were skilled at Halo were getting put against noobs in match-making, friends of mine that bought Halo 4 (it being their first halo) frequently complained of spawning and then dying straight away, and I’d like to think the decrease in population (the massive decrease) is because of Halo 4 being too hard for new comers.
I have a few ideas that may help new comers.
First of all have some kind of system in place that scans a players previous Halo career (Achievements, MP stats etc)(they did this with Gears 3 so its not impossible) and if theyre a total noob or if they only played the campaigns highlight them for the following things.
Have within the UI of Halo 5 or even whithin the war games section before they can start playing a set of video-tutorials that basically teach them how to play, how to out-BR someone, how to utilize their radar and how to use frags efficiently. (possibly voiced over by Bravo).
Before they can search in matchmaking give them their own dedicated playlist something similar to the “combat training” playlist in Cod that is basically four vs four slayer filled with easy to kill bots so that they can learn the maps and learn how to use the sandbox of Halo 5 efficiently. Make it so they must complete five games before they can move onto the next stage of multiplayer.
Next give them their own playlist that only includes other noobs so they can step up from playing against AI in the “combat training” playlist and play against other noobs. Make it so they must also complete 5 games in this playlist too before moving onto the next stage of multiplayer.
Boost them up - Now unleash them into regular matchmaking but give them a small boost in weapon damage, give them a small boost in health, give them that feeling of out BR’ing someone for the first time. They tried something like this with Gears of War 3 and from what I heard it was very well received.
Now I’m not suggesting make Halo a babyish game, I’d still like to see all the competitive communites pleas answered when Halo 5 launches such as in-game ranks, spectator mode, descoping etc etc and remember the vets will never have to see any of the above, they will just go straight into matchmaking. But I honestly think that with the above steps for noobs to use as an on-ramp we could defintely see more people falling in love with Halo like we all did years ago.
I understand you dont want to hold new-comers hands too much and make it seem like your insulting their capabilities but maybe its what is required now, just try it 343, it could work.