Which bit are you having trouble with. I’m happy to have a go…
Which bit?
If you knew your MMR value (in relation to your CSR) and the weighting for KPM you would be able to predict the change.
Unfortunately those things are out of our reach.
But once you get a feel for where you are, you can pretty much “predict” if you are going to lose a small, medium, or big chunk. There aren’t a lot of “surprises”.
Nah, you defend them at all times. Its like speaking to a wall
A helpful wall I hope. One plastered with informative posters and such. 
And I’m more than happy to criticise. The choice to make the CSR the same scale as the MMR and open ended was stupid.
The important thing is to at least try and understand what is going on.
I don’t know if this helps… but I’ve been updating a dot point type explanation of how I think ranking works for my Halo group. I’ve added a few bits and posted below. It’s still a work in progress!
THE MMR:
Your skill in TrueSkill2 is represented by your MMR - which is a normal curve describing the probability range of your likely rank.
It is not a “simple” number.
The curve has a mean (mu) and a width (described it’s standard deviation, sigma).
The mean of the curve is your most likely skill rank, but there is a 50% chance your actual rank is lower than this.
The important part of the curve is plus or minus three standard deviations from the mean (covering 99.7% of your possible rank range).
The curve starts off wide and free to move (the system has low confidence in your rank) and then, with consistent play, gradually narrows and tends to resist change (higher confidence).
The key to ranking up is to beat teams ranked above you and not to lose to teams ranked below you.
The system uses curves because it allows it to do the fancy maths;
The MMR is also influenced by personal performance. Specifically by kill and (to a lesser extent) death rates; KPM (kills per minute) and DPM (deaths per minute). These are fundamentally different to conventional metrics such as K/D, KDA, and K-D. Your KPM is a better reflection of you ability to win a “1v1”.
TrueSkill2 can “ball-park” your rank in a handful of games.
And it can very accurately rank you in less than 50 games (for a single player from a 4v4 play list).
The Global MMR;
To minimise the data footprint all the data for your recent games are contained in a “global” MMR. This is the part that holds information on recent form etc.
But each different game mode has it’s own functional MMR curve offset from this. Each has it’s own mu and independent sigma values.
An immature game mode MMR can certainly be influenced by the global MMR, but this effect weakens with game time.
And if you are playing in a brand new game mode then the system “borrows” a current MMR from a similar game mode. In rare cases this may not work very well (eg. if the only mode you have to borrow from is Bots).
YOUR CSR
343 use a CSR to give a single (non-curve) value that has a more stable trajectory than your MMR (which can be very volatile, especially early in the Season).
It goes up with a win, and down with a loss - to a maximum of 15 points.
The bigger the “upset” the bigger the change.
And finally, the CSR is always chasing the left hand edge of your MMR curve. It will tend to resist moving away from this value.
The CSR change at the end of each game does not take into account personal performance for that game. It doesn’t matter how many kills you get. How many flags your return. Or what your K/D was. Your recent personal performance can influence your MMR though, and this will indirectly affect your CSR in the next game.
And finally, it’s not easy to compare CSR changes between players. You don’t know the shape of their MMR curve compared to yours, or the influence of their recent peronal performance.
An Example;
As an example; let’s consider someone with a relatively stable MMR; with a mean of 1500 and a standard deviation of 5.
This would give you a 98% probability curve of having a rank somewhere between 1485 and 1515 (plus or minus three standard deviations from the mean).
Mathematically your MMR will behave closer to the mean of 1500.
Matchmaking will tend to treat you more across the whole range of 1485 to 1515.
As for your CSR, in this case it will be trying to settle at 1485 (three standard deviations below the mean). It will still go up with a win and down with a loss - but it will resist moving too far away from that specific value.
If your CSR is above 1485 it will tend to not go up much with a win and down in bigger jumps with a loss. If your CSR is lower than 1485 it will jump with a win and only small amounts with a loss.
What tends to happen, is that your CSR will oscillate around 1485. It drifts up a bit with each win against sides ranked equal or below you (people often describe grinding up 10 to 15 points) and then falls back down to 1485 with a loss - up to 15 points at a time.
And this is why it’s a bit silly to get hung up over every single CSR point. Your actual MMR is a range. That range is a moving target. And your CSR tries to balance rewarding every win but also not straying too far away from that target. Combine that with the fact that natural form can fluctuate plus or minus 150 points on any given night and it’s just not worth it.
So I’m kinda hitting a wall in ranked, maxing out around Platinum 4 and fluctuating back and forth from 3-4. Haven’t been able to surpass Platinum 4 though.
With my play style it’s either; play aggressively (take it to the enemies, force the issue, etc) and die a lot but be more effective
-or-
play more conservatively (being more aware of my surroundings, trying not to put myself in situations where I’m an easy target, etc) and die fewer times but not be as effective and help the team as much.
Obviously dying a lot doesn’t do much to help the team in any mode. But I don’t know what to do to get better. Not sure if it’s the game putting me in tough matches where the other team is better overall(? - enemies often seem to kill me faster, somehow)
Using an Elite Series 2 controller and always play with headset.
Not sure what else to do. But Im having fun at least.
yesterday i kept finding myself up against diamond players in social matches, sigh…
Does anyone know who at 343 chose to make csr visible as opposed to mmr? And the theory behind why csr is visible and not mmr? The 3v4 in ranked are too consistent to take tru skill seriously in my opinion. Halo infinite is a fun game, ranked system and how it implements itself feels soulless and rigged… definitely when I’m wearing my tin hat, but even when I’m not 
now when I play ranked already feel no motivation at all cause I know my progress will mean nothing. I don’t play gladly anymore 
think I gonna give a month break of Halo cause it is really annoying
I was in the same situation.
Managed to get up to D1/2 by;
Really working on my strafe. Including making sure my controller settings were optimised for it. Up the max threshold on the move stick and lower it on the look stick. AboveAverageCody has recently done a great video on this. If you have the Elite2 change the move stick to aggressive.
Combining that aggressive and conservative play. Move aggressively through the map but stay conservative in your engagements.
Push hard to the next spot. You should have a route that takes you from one defensive position to the next. As you move turn to look / face where the enemy could be so you can’t be ambushed - but as a rule you should keep heading to your next spot.
Once you safely in your spot then switch to conservative mode. Peek out and pepper the enemy. Always be prepared to duck back into cover and plan your escape route.
Only push if you know you have the advantage (element of surprise, first shot, better weapons, high ground, team mates in support).
Spend some time on the maps running around and putting your aim where the enemy should be. This pre-aiming is what gives you the head start in the gun battle.
Your MMR is a probability curve. It’s a range of skills. And it can jump around a bit. So you need a CSR of some sort.
The purported advantages of what 343 have done is that;
It’s a way of summarising the MMR range. Specifically it’s trying to be the value that is three standard deviations below the mean. Essentially the left hand edge of your MMR curve.
The CSR has a slower / smoother trajectory (limited to +/- 15 points). This allows your MMR to be a bit more volatile, especially early in the season.
You can “reward” players for the win - awarding some CSR points even if your MMR hasn’t changed.
On a mature account they are pretty much the same value. Your MMR curve is so narrow that the left hand edge (what the CSR is trying to chase) is very close to the mean.
Your CSR will oscillate a bit around the MMR because of point 3. But we are still only talking a handful of CSR points.
They are frustating. And 343 could do so much more to keep the game engaging in these cases.
But TrueSkill has you covered.
The quitter is penalised harder. And most of TrueSkill2’s metrics are both time and opponent based - so the number of opponents you are facing are taken into account.
343 could definitely work on the CSR and how they present the rank.
But it’s not rigged.
The difficult part here is what you mean by “progress”.
We definitely need an XP rank system. Weighted to wins and performance. That way you can be rewarded for wins, even if they are only against teams ranked the same or lower than you.
But the system can only “progress” your rank if you prove you have become a better player. You have to beat the teams ranked above you and improve your personal performance (hit your required KPM for the level of opponent).
That’s not easy to do once you have hit your skill ceiling.
Perhaps before the match we could see the mmr numbers and how much we will gain lose if we win/lose. I don’t really care anymore I’ve played over 3000 games but I used to care
It’s tricky. What you actually need is to see the shape of everyone’s MMR.
And a lot of people don’t seem to cope with the concept of your MMR being a curve.
Interesting idea.
Not sure?
Would it lead to people quitting out of a game. eg. if you saw a big penalty for a loss and pretty much no gain for a win.
I think we definitely need to see a post game breakdown of why we gained or lost what we did.
Wrong on your counts Darwin.
I guess you didn’t get the sarcasm in my comments. Your unranked games should not be nail biters like the ranked games are. Also, the ranking system doesn’t work in unranked because very rarely do you get a game tht is close. It is 9/10 times a blow out one way or the other. It’s terrible and ruins the experience. There is no such thing as casual anymore which why only the last hardcore 4,000 or so Halo players even exist anymore.
Is it a curve because of the human factor? I’ve always felt like everyones kind of fluctuating around. Ive seen you explain it, and it makes sense. Some days…man we just don’t play well. We want to play, but just arent feeling it. Then some days we’re just locked in, and in flow.
Theres times where I want to chalk it up to me playing players not that good, but those games i get decent csr, and its usually players ranked above me. For people like…idk…mid 30s and beyond…man…i mean perhaps some younger people too, but…life…kids…stress at work…working out with hands already exhausted from work…man bro sometimes i know im hopping on and gonna play bad lol. The human factor.
Which one(s)? I’ve made quite a few comments in this thread.
Most of them pretty much based in fact (according to what has been said by Microsoft and 343).
You’ll need to be more specific.
And get my name right.
Was that sarcasm? I don’t know anymore.
PS. It was the last line there that was the sarcastic bit.
I don’t tend to look for sarcasm in other people’s posts. Unless they are British. They do sarcasm well. Blackadder rules.
They don’t have to be nail biters. They just have to be close enough that both teams felt like they had a chance.
I’ve been in games where we’ve lost CTF 3-0. But each flag was hotly contested.
A very superficial glance through Halo Tracker and clicking on 10 of your games that were Slayer types; 50-48, 50-42, 50-32, 50-26, 50-38, 50-49, 50-42, 50-39, 50-42, and 50-39.
Not that bad?
But it’s hard without context. A player or team can nail a triple or even overkill in a few seconds. So a game can go from being fiercely contested 35-35 to 50-40 before you really have a chance to respond. And on the same token you can be dominating 45-20 and then slack off a bit to end up winning 50-40.
Menke once mentioned that people’s form can fluctuate by up to +/- 150 points on a given day.
All those human factors you talked about, plus some technology ones (latency etc).
Using curves would certainly allow the system to pick up these waverings quickly and adjust your opponents to suit.
Some people don’t cope with this concept. They get an unhealthy fixation on the number as something that defines them as a player. That somehow every game they play is at the level of 1500. And if they win a game that they must now be a 1510.
I’ve even had one poster argue with me black and blue that the MMR is a single number. They just wouldn’t accept this curve stuff. Even when I linked them the Microsoft page describing it.
The only way to improve is to practice certain techniques and purposefully improve your skill. If you have stabilised then that’s how good you are - you can’t just get better unless through experience and through purposefully proving your weak points.
Watch back how you play. Go to theatre and determine where your weak points are. If they are simply aim….then how do you improve that outside a firing range. If it is movement, then learn so one new traversal methods. Do you always get rocketed? Then work out when the weapons spawn and be there before the enemy.
If you’re not focusing on reducing mistakes and improving weaknesses you’ll forever be plat 4
Gives people a reason to nuke their ranked MMR to smurf in low end lobbies. Bet 343 didn’t think about that one.
343’s mental gymnastics are on another level, good god.
Its hard for me to not want to play aggressively. I feel like if i dont then i am not contributing. But yea. I get what you’re saying. Gonna work on my strafing next.