I did a similar RNG data collection experiment with fiesta-slayer on map Highpower for vehicle spawns,
My findings though a little biased, indecated that the Wasp had been weighted to spawn in far less then every other vehicle option including the Banshee.
Yes I do like using the Wasp even if it is made out of tissue paper while under my control.
Maches were private custom games. Data was not saved.
Roughly how many games? Roughly how many spawns? Like right now on my chart there’s definite skewing but overall there’s a very small sample size I’m going off of right now so this early on things are going to look off.
I haven’t put in the data from about 9 games yet, but from just simple observation on my end loadouts frequencies seem like they’ve plateaued a bit number wise.
Problem I’ve run into now is that my computer likes to freeze when I’m trying to play saved videos after about 20 minutes of pausing and playing so it’s making an already tedious slog even more tedious and sloggy. A 7-10 minute match takes about 20 minutes to sort through normally, having to restart my PC and go through the process bumps it up to about 35 minutes. My backlog keeps growing.
i would like to see the that, happened to me once, i always thinks is desync
I really appreciate the effort put in here.
I’d be curious to know what kinds of challenges you had while collecting this data (sorry if I missed it). I wasn’t getting any swords when I need to get 10 kills - now it seems like I get one every respawn.
Yep. Really appreciate this. I really should start collecting my own data as well.
I think the problem is that at a basic level, we as humans, don’t cope with random numbers very well.
I see it all the time in Pokemon Go. People almost in tears that they don’t have a 1:20 (5% chance) shiny after 20 or so catches. They are always astounded when you tell them that more than 1 in 3 people are in the same boat.
And when you say that nearly 1 in 10 won’t have one after 50 raids…
The randomness is totally there. I think it’s just desyncs and a bland sandbox combined with gaps in a players own skill that makes it seem unrandom. IMO at least
After playing more yesterday (I didn’t collect any data from it) and looking at the data from here it does seem to be random. Maybe there is a slight skew for Tier 1 and 2 to be spawned with more, but those also are more common since there’s more of those weapons.
Which is why it always seems like everyone has sword and rockets because enough people keep spawning with them to ensure they’re always on the field and in use since they’re so desired because of how dominant they are.
Are you paying attention to whether you have any specific weapon challenges active when doing this?
My tin foil hat tells me that the randomness isn’t so random if you have an active challenge.
I had a challenge to get rocket launcher kills and thought Fiesta would be an easy way to do this. Boy was I wrong. It took over 100 lives for me to spawn with a rocket launcher (and to make matters worse, the spawn was so bad that I immediately was spawn killed). Just some quick math tells me that as 1 out of 22 weapons, it should have given it to me approximately 10 times in that amount of lives if it was completely random. Instead I got it once.
Well I can say that when I played yesterday I had a challenge for getting sidekick kills and another for mangler kills. I did spawn with the sidekick and mangler plenty. So I honestly believe you just had terrible RNG. I’ve gotten those challenges before and usually only need 1 or 2 games before I finish it.
I’ll be off work for a few days and can check the games for shiggles and add to the data.
I’ve got about 40 or so games on the back burners at the moment with my PC still freezing when trying to watch the videos (recorded directly, not in Theater mode so it’s not a problem with the game itself). I’m gonna try to move them onto a hard drive so I can sift through them on my laptop.
@Little_Squash The only things I’m focusing on are the ones that are listed in the table. It is an interesting prospect though.
It would be interesting to see the spread from a game by game basis. The aggregate (while it’s still data) leaves out some nuance.
That would definitely be an outlier.
Chance of spawning with rocket launcher is a titch over 9%.
Chance of not getting one in a typical game (based on 10 deaths) is about 38%.
The chance of not getting one in 100 deaths is very small. We’re looking at close to 1 in 14,000 chance.
If that’s the level of conspiracy we’re dealing with - it should be very easy to prove with some actual prospective data collection.
A quick glance seems pretty even enough for the most part. Maybe some people can stop using extreme adjectives like ALL and NEVER when talking about fiesta now.
Also, one of the reasons that a team might appear to get better weapon spawns is that they’re just better at scavaging and holding better weapons as a team.
And sharing them between themselves.
So I played some more games today and didn’t go over any of the previous games and get data. I don’t think I’m going to spend the time doing it now. I’m just to limited on time at this point. I did try to pay attention to the challenges I had while playing and if I frequently or infrequently spawned with the weapons I need. I found myself spawning with those weapons at what felt like a standard rate. I did have a couple games where I spawned with the same weapons multiple times. I did make a note about it. I spawned with a Shock Rifle and Sniper three times in a row on Behemoth. And I spawned with plasma pistol and sidekick twice on streets. Those were the only odd outliers from the games I played today.
Everything thing felt standard RNG.
That happened to me twice in a row!
Over 53,000 to 1… gotta love randomness…
One of the things my Halo group is looking forward to is making up our own Fiesta game using Forge and scripting.
We’re going to divide the weapons up into different categories based on their power. eg. Tiers A, B, and C.
Then, on spawning, the script will take into your account when selecting random weapons. If you are doing well (high KD) you would get weapons from the less powerful Tiers, and if you are struggling (low KD) you are guaranteed better weapons from the higher Tiers.
So, I haven’t conducted a proper experiment, but, here are two things I’ve taken from my very many Fiesta matches I have to play through my Challenges.
1: I have roughly 100 deaths from this week alone in Fiesta, and I’ve spawned once or twice with Rockets. Couple that with the 200+ deaths from the last even, and 6 spawns, I’m 300+ deaths, meaning 600 weapons, and 8 RL spawns.
2: Matches have been somewhat enjoyable, no connection issues, fairly good opponents but also some worse ones to even out the teams. Yet, the instance I need to get cumulative points in it, Hit-reg is out the window, the ping fluctuate widely, while I also seem to be more prone to be thrown onto overseas servers. Opponents seem to be far better, with aiming skills close to aim-botting.
I just spawned with the skewer six or seven times in one match.
That’s RNG for ya. I’ve never had that happen before.