I am preserving the original post in quotes below. That way, my incorrect analysis will preserved for posterity.
I based the analysis on 56 seconds being too short for a match length. If the actual H5 match length were a typical slayer match length, the analysis below would be correct. However, I no longer believe that to be the case. I don’t need a reply from Josh Holmes to come to this conclusion, so I won’t wait for that.
For me to be correct, the average match length for the H5 beta needs to be in the ~7min mark. Let’s see if that is possible by looking at the other numbers 343i has given us:
Total kills: 181M
Total players: 1M
With 181M kills and 1M unique beta players, this means the average player achieved 181 kills. Let’s just say that the average player achieved 10 kills per match. Yes, that’s low . . . but it actually gets worse for the H5 beta as the kill count per match increases.
So . . . 181 kills at a 10-kill-per-match average means that the average beta player participated in 18 matches. For me to be correct, those 18 matches must each have lasted for a typical slayer match duration - or about 7 minutes. This means we can get the average per-player playtime as follows:
- (average # matches per player) * (average match length) * (unique players) = cumulative total playtime- 18 * 7 min * 1M = 2.1M hours _at only 2.1 hours played per person_This checks very well with the 2.5M playtime hours listed, but does not check well at all with the 20M games played. Were the games to have been typical slayer matches, there should have been ~1.4 billion kills . . . not 181M. What this means is that each ROUND of Breakout was recorded as a completed MATCH . . . and that the actual average match length was, indeed, 56 seconds. Since I can reach CHX’s conclusion by looking at a different set of numbers and CHX’s conclusion is consistent with all of the stats on the infographic, he is correct. My number can be achieved by looking at any 2 of the 3 numbers (kills, hours, matches), but cannot be made consistent with all three simultaneously.
In other words, CHX H8 ME was correct. In comparing the beta playtimes, the average H3 beta player logged 14.6 hours, while the average H5 beta player logged 2.5 hours. Read into that what you will.
I have posted a reply in his thread.
> So in this popular thread, the OP links to an image describing the per player differences in total hours played between the H3 and H5 betas. The OP kindly also provided the links to his source information in the image (for which I thank him). Unfortunately, based on the source information provided, the OP’s comparison is incorrect.
>
> Per the H5 Beta data source, there were 20M matches played for a total of 2.5M gameplay hours. The OP took this number to mean hours played by player. That assumption is wrong. If there were 20M matches and the 2.5M hours meant by player, then we can calculate the average match duration:
>
> {2.5M hrs / (8 players per match * 20M matches)} * (3600 seconds / hr) = 56 seconds per match (average)
>
> The average match length for the H5 beta was certainly not only 56 seconds. So we know now that the H5 data cannot possibly mean hours by player. If, however, we assume the 2.5M hours is not by player, but rather by match, we get a much more sensible answer:
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> {(2.5M hrs) / (20M matches)} * (60 min / hr) = 7.5 minutes per match (average)
>
> So it is quite clear that the H5 Beta data is based on hours by match - not hours by player.
>
> Looking at his provided link for the H3 Beta data source, we find Major Nelson giving 820K unique players and 12M hours of total playtime. Major Nelson further goes on to say that this is equivalent to a single player logging 1,400 continuous years of playtime. So does Major Nelson mean 12M hours by match (like H5) or 12M hours by player? We can easily find out. Let’s find out what 1,400 continuous years of playtime comes out to in terms of hours by player:
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> 1,400 yrs * (365 days / year) * (24 hrs / day) = 12.26M hours
>
> Major Nelson does, indeed, mean hours by player. This is also consistent with his statistic for downloaded data, which was a total cumulative by player statistic.
>
> Thus, in order to compare the H5 and H3 betas, we must either convert the H3 numbers into hours by match or convert the H5 numbers into hours by player. Let’s do that and see where we come out:
>
> Using H5 “hours by match” statistics:
>
> H5 Guardians: 1M players with 2.5M total match hours
> H3 Beta: 0.82M players with 1.5M total match hours
>
> - or -
>
> Using H3 “hours by player” statistics:
>
> H5 Guardians: 1M players with an average of 20.0 hrs played per player
> H3 Beta: 0.82M players with an average of 14.6 hrs played per player
>
> In other words, the two betas had comparable statistics for matches and total hours played on a per-player basis, with the H5 beta actually beating H3 in both categories. Wild theorizing about why the H5 beta had so much less replay value need no longer apply.
>
> One question remains: Will the OP of the other thread generate and post a corrected infographic?
