Lets start by saying I can not prove this nor does it really matter…But do you guys remember old Mario Cart N64 where when you are last you get a ton of blue shells and when in first you get the lesser items. I kinda feel like fiesta is the same way. When I start I get snipe/rocks/br…soon as I have double digit kills in first its AR/Pulser from there on out. lol
Again this is not a thread with pitchforks saying lets change this mode! I am just curious if anybody else feels this way.
I feel like it’s just the rng, there is less power weapons then normal, so it just be like that.
As I haven’t collected any data, I cannot determine if your observations does reflect reality or not. On the other hand, I would assume that the random number generator works independently from player performance and that the probability to get a given set of weapons A and B does not change throughout the game.
I’m not sure if it penalizes you, but it feels off from other games to me for sure. The other day I spawned with a battle rifle and shock rifle 3 times in one game, and a gravity hammer and bulldog 2 times in a row all in the same match
I’ve used random weapon starts in customs since Halo 2 and I don’t think that’s the case. The weapon starts are random, and I don’t think 343 tweaked it.
Simple answer - no it’s random
In the long run, you will have an equal selection of weapons. In the short term you may have fluctuations.
During the course of one game you’ll get some terrible weapon selections, some fantastic selections but the vast majority will be a range of good and bad.
You’re probably getting good weapons at the start of some games and going a few kills up then the law of averages giving not-so-good weapons and the kill difference equalising some and thinking it’s punished you.
Then getting bad weapons at match start in other games, going down a few kills then the law of averages giving better weapons to close the gap and thinking it’s giving you a chance.
If you want to get complicated - read about ‘gamblers fallacy’ and ‘law of large numbers’ - it won’t help at all but it will save me expanding more and boring everyone to death 
Definitely just random.
The RNG can be punishing, but I doubt it has anything to do with how well you’re doing. I’ve had Fiesta games where I was tearing through people and for several games I was getting the best weapons, and then I’d randomly get like a Plasma Pistol and a Mangler against Rocket Launchers, Snipers, etc.
Sometimes you just get bad weapons.
I would say that both of the stated applications of the law of large numbers are highly inappropriate due to pre existing knowledge that the previous weapon rolls has either been better or worse than expected respectively and the inferred assumption that the random process that determines future weapon rolls is completely independent from previous weapon rolls.
To illustrate that your argument doesn’t hold, lets suppose that we have a fair 6 sided die with the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 for the different sides and we wishes to calculate the sum for multiple consecutive dice rolls (like weapon rolls in fiesta). Then for a single roll, the expected outcome would be 3.5 and with 2 rolls, the expected outcome would be 7 (3.5 per roll). On the other hand, if we assume that the first roll gave a 1, then the expected outcome for 2 rolls would be 4.5 (2.25 per roll) due to the pre existing knowledge about the first roll. The same principle do also apply if we roll the die 3 times with pre existing knowledge about the first out of the 3 rolls but the effects are more likely to be less significant than the example with 2 rolls with pre existing knowledge about the first roll.
What you’ve tried to do is use over-complicated english to sound clever but forget to use punctuation and paragraphs and check for the multiple spelling mistakes that it makes reading and bothering to understand painful.
Then when you’ve bothered to start a second paragraph to give an example - you’ve made it even more unclear.
In short - I use these techniques as my job now, since I ran my trigger finger through a circular saw and was pushed out of the military because I wasn’t much use to them then.
I fully know how these theories work and use them so I don’t have to work full days and can waste my life playing this game and writing here.
So I know how they work and don’t need them explaining but put them at the end of a comment for others to read if they want to.
I might have another read of what you’ve written after a bottle of spirits - we’ll see.
Edit: let’s get this out the way before the whisky starts…
Still not read again because of the points made above.
Fiesta has no memory of weapons used - each life is a ‘fresh spin of the wheel’ hence me refering people to ‘gamblers fallacy’.
The point I was making was the playlist is random, the playlist’s weapon selections per player will equalise over time but in the short term there will be fluctuations hence me refering people to ‘law of large numbers’
During one game, it may not be long enough for ‘law of large numbers’ to take effect but was given as an example for further optional reading and…
Using a die is a bad example - if I were to expand my example (and bore people) weapons would be grouped into ‘terrible’, ‘ok’ and ‘power’ (we don’t need to look at every weapon - only groups), when you spawn you generally select the best or the best for the position (long/short range) using a die is a poor example for this.
Thanks for over complicating this - whisky time.
Don’t agree. I get AR/pp out of the gate. Though AR is better than half the guns in the game anyway assuming you aren’t in the open against sniper pro bro
I dunno I hardly ever get power weapons. 9/10 games I spawn with rubbish and most games I can go the whole time without getting a rocket but I’d easily get pistols and basic weapons like common flies
I’m pretty sure it’s just random. I’ve had games where I’m like 5 kills 17 deaths because I kept spawning with a pulse carbine and plasma pistol or disrupter and pulse carbine/plasma pistol. It was just really bad RNG. It wasn’t rewarding me with better weapons and I definitely wasn’t doing well enough for any system to think I needed to get bad weapons. Heck in one of those games I spawned with the pulse carbine so much I shouted at my TV " For the love of all things holy, could I just get an AR or something?!"
It would be nice if they did make it so you always spawn with a power weapon of some kind.
I feel like the game does more like a spawn flip type of thing but with weapons. It will spawn one team with standard weapons more often and another with more power weapons and than it flips.
God knows I would go spawn with AR, Bulldog, sidekick plasma pistols while the other team got snips and rockets
I highly doubt there is any specificity to the algorithm behind the random drops.
What I know exits is something of a heightened paranoia when you’re in the lead or trying to accomplish something specific. When you’re already up and a bad spawn rotation will hurt you all the more, it feels all the more deliberate and thus sticks out in your mind more prominently. Same thing happens with challenges, you get that feeling that the matchmaking system is out to screw you because when you need those oddball games for a challenge, you never seem to get any.
Possibly,. It if you spawn with the Commando in Fiesta you basically should give up on that kill, lol that gun gets outmatched by the side kick, god help you if your have eit and everyone else has power weapons lol
Even if previous weapon rolls doesn’t affect the outcome of future weapon rolls. Knowledge about the earlier weapon rolls do still affect the overall expectations about the weapon rolls for the game itself. If you throw a die twice and you know the outcome of the first roll.
The law of large numbers states that that the average of a sample will converge towards the expectations when the sample size tends to infinity. On the other hand, it isn’t as clear that this principle applies for a relatively short game if you have pre existed information about the outcome of the initial weapon rolls.
A die is a perfectly reasonable example as it’s still possible to assign a value for each individual weapon combinations based on the expected performance with the weapon combination. One relatively easy method to estimate the value of each individual weapon combination is to count the number of kills with each individual weapon combination and then assign a value based on the average from a large sample.
Or you could try to pair it with your other weapon to more efficiently kill with it. I’ve never been great with precision weapons, but I can do pretty good with the commando. If you pace your shots a little or do two round bursts kinda like you would want to do with a needle rifle in reach at range then it does a good job. Commando definitely looses in most fights, but it’s not worthless like the raveger or pulse carbine and plasma pistol on its own.
i think it’s just coinsidental bad luck. i’ve been against a winning team who has gotten nothing but power weapons
People have tried that and no matter what I always seem to our perform them when they use the commando.
Hell I’m a beast with the AR Sidekick start and that was from day 1. Honestly sometimes I play a round of Slayer without picking up any other guns and still get amazing kills.