First off, please let me say congratulations on being part of the storied Halo franchise. I am sure most of you at 343 are ecstatic to be part of one of the best selling and highest rated video game franchises of all time. Halo has a strong and a very dedicated following and if properly utilized, could bring unsurpassed success to your careers.
Please allow me to state who I am and the purpose of this post. I am a 28 year old casual gamer who has played Halo since Combat Evolved. I enjoy the campaign of Halo games but most of my time is spent divulging in the multiplayer experience. I do wish I was able to spend more time gaming, but due to my duties as a working business professional, I am only able to put in a few hours per week. The purpose of this post is to point out what I see wrong with 343 Industries’ approach to Halo, but from more of a business perspective. I understand this will most likely go unheeded, but I can at least say I have brought these glaring issues forward. First, I will discuss the success of Halo 4’s initial release and the current issues confronting 343. I will then display the effect this will have on the future of Halo 5, and furthermore the lasting effect on 343.
When Halo 4 released on November 6, 2012, it was met with resounding success with both awards and sales. It has since sold nearly 8 million copies to gamers around the world. For any game this would be considered a great success. However, I would like to bring to light that the issue that lies in front of us is the future and subsequent population drop-off of Halo 4. Every product has a life cycle and for different products the life cycle’s timeline is either shortened or extended. For popular video games, pending if it is part of a yearly installment; the life cycle is typically one to three years. If we use Call of Duty, for example, when the game releases sales and population are very high, then around Christmas time you have the last big exponential increase in both sales and population - ending the growth period in the life cycle. Halo 4 had a very similar increase and many would argue it was moving at the same rate as Call of Duty, during that time. After the growth period, a game then hits its maturity time where population starts to level off until about July. Successful games such as Halo 3, Fifa series, and Call of Duty rarely have any drop off at this time. Halo 4 has since seen a drastic fall off of about 60% since Christmas, which firmly places itself into the decline stage well before its competitors. To ignore this would not be beneficial for 343’s future endeavors, such as Halo 5. This places the future sales of the franchise in jeopardy and despite having the Halo title, can players overlook recent history? Past evidence points to “no” (see NBA Live franchise or Square Enix developed games).
In order for the future of 343 to be successful, the immediate priority needs to be stabilizing Halo 4’s popularity and to recreate excitement for the game. As the community/population for this game is so small, it would be of great benefit to really listen to the consumers and implement what they ask for. Not all desires can be fulfilled; but, I believe most still can be (ranks is a great starting point, but don’t stop there). This will create a rekindled sense of excitement for the game for current player and will cause a trickle down effects into former players. Communication needs to be improving greatly between 343 and its consumers. A suggestion might be creating a sort of public relations position that focuses on communication with the consumers and gathers their ideas for improving the product while relaying faith in and gratitude for the consumer base, making them feel engaged and heard. This could help establish goodwill for the product as the consumer now feels they have a dedicated outlet to talk, rather than tweeting to a developer who may or may not answer them. Also, they may advise on decisions that may be seen as politically incorrect, such as using a handicap logo to show how accessible the game is. Right now the consumer feels as if they are not heard and they are disheartened. This will eventually lead to a decline in sales – not only for current games, but more importantly for the future of Halo.
This was just a rough overview of what I see currently and what could be done to stop the collapse of 343 and Halo’s future. I do have analogies that would help portray what is happening, but due to length I will not bring them to light. I do understand from the business perspective that you tried to take Halo and put your own mark on it to differentiate yourself. Unfortunately, it has not worked out successfully and it will not be prosperous in the future. I believe you now need to change your direction to being the company that listens to its consumer’s wants and needs and be the best at fulfilling them. Call of Duty has not maintained success just because of their gameplay alone. Each developer really understands what their consumers want and they implement it without question. Your consumers tell you exactly what they desire. If you want to survive now and succeed in the future you must listen.
As for me personally, I have a disposable income when it comes to my hobbies, such as gaming. In the past, I have purchased ever map pack Halo had to offer. Halo 4 has been the first game where I have not. At this point in time, I am not forecasting myself to buy Halo 5 or any future DLC. I know many others who now have those same feelings. We are not necessarily moving to Call of Duty or another replacement game, we are just finding other hobbies to devote our spare time to as we see the future of this series on the decline. You have a chance to reclaim that future revenue, how badly do you want it? Do you want to be prideful and be fruitless, or humble and successful?