Challenges & Manipulated Weapon Drops

Games Halo Infinite
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Perhaps this is just me, but I feel as though weapon and vehicle drops are manipulated per-round based on a players’ challenges to make it harder for progression.

Take my current challenge, that is, to get 15 kills with a Ghost’s plasma turrets. Prior to that challenge, I see Ghost’s once or twice a game. Since getting that challenge, on Tuesday I might add, I have not seen a single Ghost until a BTB battle today. I feel that challenges are either manipulating the game state or this is a severe mathematical improbability. In either case, it’s unacceptable that the nature of the game makes challenge progression impossible by-nature of what drops into a game.

This same concept applies to games. I feel that I get games like Stockpile and CTF often, but as soon as I have a relevant challenge for either my chance of spawning into the lobby of the desire gametype instantly drops. It’s so bad that I’m honestly tempted to open a sheet and start recording gamestate’s every few minutes to collect actual data to be used to make this distinction.

Does anyone else feel like challenges are manipulating the game state, or am I the victim of extremely severe mathematical improbability? No ghosts since Tuesday barring one today and I’ve done nothing but play? It just seems off.

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I don’t think that’s how it is but it sure feels that way with some of these ridiculous challenges.

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The thing is that 15 ghost kills isn’t ridiculous. It’s very doable - play an older Halo and I could breeze through that in one, two BTB games at most. Halo Infinite’s haphazard and random vehicles spawns just aren’t good for it though.

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It’s not just you. Lots of people are complaining about not getting the game mode necessary for completing a challenge even after trying for hours on end. It happened to me. A lot.

I believe it’s reasonable to assume that 343i is rigging the RNG in order to hinder your progression in challenges.

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I like your tin foil hat, it’s very shiny

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We can’t put links in our posts, but I suggest you to look up for a thread called " 4 or 5 hours of playtime in quick play to get no stronghold."

The title is self-explanatory, but keep in mind that OP posted again claiming that he played for several more hours later and still got no strongholds.

There’s another guy who claims to have played for 8 hours and found 1 slayer match. That’s a helluva bad streak, if you ask me. And I can relate to that, I have had the same experience several times in the last few days.

Suppose that it takes 15 minutes to play one arena game and get matchmade for the next one. Eight hours would amount to 32 games.

There are four arena game types: Slayer, Strongholds, Oddball and CTF (I’ll count both 1-flag and 2-flag as one mode).

What are the chances that you get only one slayer match in thirty attempts if the chance of getting Slayer is 25%?

That’s a very simple probability problem that can be solved using the binomial distribution. If m is the number of attempts (32), n is the number of successes (1) and p is the probability of success on each attempt, then

P = m! / n! / (m-n)! * p^n * (1-p)^(m-n)
P = 0.0011 (or 0.11%)

So, if the RNG is fair, there should be a chance of about one in one thousand of getting a bad streak like our friend got.

That’s okay, there are hundreds of thousands playing Halo right now, some of us are due to get unlucky.

However, I myself have had multiple bad streaks comparable to that one in the last few days. Either I am the unluckiest Halo player of all time, or there’s something fishy happening.

I’ll wear my tinfoil hat proudly. That would make a nice cosmetic reward for my Spartan, don’t you think?

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