Anyone skeptical of the Season length? (Analysis)

Games Halo 5: Guardians
1

This is all speculative, so I cannot say for sure how the Arena/Season system is going to work in regards to moving up the tiers in each division. This is solely my analysis/concerns with the information that has been given.

The issue at hand is the length of the Arena Seasons. It has been announced that the Seasons will last 1 Month. When examining the style of tier/division system that they are using, and comparing it to other games that implement a similar system (League of Legends/Smite), I fear that the time given will not be good enough to really gauge a players true skill.

Here is the number one reason why.

Lack of Play Time - I have done some relatively rudimentary math, and have come up with these numbers as a simple base to start with. Assuming (Speculative) that it takes 10 wins (0 Losses) to move through a given tier (Silver 5 - Silver 4), one would need to play a lot of games (300) with a 100% win rate to reach Onyx Division, and compete for Champion. 5 Division * 6 Tiers would mean that you would need to average a tier each day for 30 days just to enter Onyx Division. This is assuming that you place in Bronze 5 during your placement matches.

The problem that I am finding is for those of us who may be Onyx Division level players, but aren’t necessarily good enough to win every single match all the way up to Onyx Division. For example, if you have a 70% Win Rate, this would mean that you would (in a perfect world) win 7 games, and lose 3 for each tier. This would require you to play a total of 13 games for each tier to make up for those 3 losses. So now the total of games played (perfect scenario) would be (390 Games). This number becomes exponentially larger for those that don’t average a 70% Win Rate.

My point is this, if you average a 70% win rate, odds say that you will move up through the ranks and ultimately reach Onyx Division, just through grinding because the system is purely based off Wins/Losses. You are good enough to reach Onyx, but you had to fight your way to the Division, but it was still earned fair a square. If the seasons are only 1 Month long, this could potentially alienate those people who have a decent win rate but a lack of time to play all the games necessary.

Anyways, this is all skeptical, and obviously requires you to be good enough to play your opponents at those tiers/divisions in order to secure those wins. I just would hate to see people miss out on their true skill/division based purely on a lack of time.

TL;DR - There are 4 Seasons in the year, why not make each Arena Season 3 Months instead of 1 Month.

2
  1. Should be 3 months minimum.
  2. Not all ranks should reset. SWAT and BTB for example.
  3. There should be a display where you can see the highest ranks of each season a person achieved.

Quite brave from you to be skeptical about something in the game while everyone is on the HypeTrain.

3

Well, it isn’t confirmed that seasons are a month long. The article says that ‘certain playlists’ reset, so they may have a rotation going, with individual playlists having a longer than a month season, but each month some playlists change season.

But assuming that you are right, and it’s a month long season, the placement games will start you way further than the bottom, so you wouldn’t need all 300 games to reach Onyx. If you’re an Onyx level player, odds are good that your placements will always put you somewhere in gold or above.

Although, at that point, the major problem becomes that there will be far too much emphasis on placement matches.

4

The reset is (or it seems to be anyway) following how Blizzard did Hearthstone ranking. Each ‘Season’ is a month long and at the end you get rewards depending on how high you managed to place before the end of the season.
I’m guessing they implemented it like this as a safety measure to try and keep people playing month after month, each fighting for top spot.

I’d like to see longer seasons, but I completely understand why they did it like this.

5

> 2533274842679595;3:
> Well, it isn’t confirmed that seasons are a month long. The article says that ‘certain playlists’ reset, so they may have a rotation going, with individual playlists having a longer than a month season, but each month some playlists change season.
>
> But assuming that you are right, and it’s a month long season, the placement games will start you way further than the bottom, so you wouldn’t need all 300 games to reach Onyx. If you’re an Onyx level player, odds are good that your placements will always put you somewhere in gold or above.
>
> Although, at that point, the major problem becomes that there will be far too much emphasis on placement matches.

I agree with you on your placement matches ultimately cutting into the amount of games you have to play in the long run. The limited season length may ultimately weigh pretty heavily on your placements though. Only time will tell.

6

Geez, 300 games in a month? If the month season is true, that sucks. I have a life lol but I want a good rank.

7

They’re 1 month long? Dang…ya that’s WAY WAY too short, considering I can only play games on Friday’s and Saturdays for the most part.

8

Is it confirmed that it takes about 10 wins to move through a tier?

9

> 2533274821269382;7:
> They’re 1 month long? Dang…ya that’s WAY WAY too short, considering I can only play games on Friday’s and Saturdays for the most part.

Same, but if you do well for your placement games it should work

10

If it works like most ranked playlists in games, your ranking in previous seasons will have a large impact on where you get placed from your next placement matches.

I still think it’s too short of a turn around, I think at least two months would be good, maybe three.

11

> 2533274793616507;8:
> Is it confirmed that it takes about 10 wins to move through a tier?

It’s not confirmed but this is why he is speculating. 10 wins to move through a tier wouldn’t be a bad starting point, but I feel like the underlying system may be tied to a system similar to LP in League of Legends. The more you win, the more LP you generate, which means that you have an easier time going up. While it might take someone with a 50% win rate to win 10 matches before moving through a tier it might take someone with a win rate of 70% to win 4 games before moving through a tier.

What I said above is all speculation, but I cannot see why it wouldn’t be true. The more you win in a given tier, the less likely it is that you belong in that tier. Also, I feel like 1 month is far to short, however most games in Halo are short, ranging between 10 - 15 min, so I can see why it doesn’t last a whole year like a game like League of Legends. I think 3 months is a perfect amount of time to even out where you belong, but since we don’t know the underlying math in the system, maybe that is why it’s only a month instead.

12

> 2533274837256553;11:
> > 2533274793616507;8:
> > Is it confirmed that it takes about 10 wins to move through a tier?
>
>
> It’s not confirmed but this is why he is speculating. 10 wins to move through a tier wouldn’t be a bad starting point, but I feel like the underlying system may be tied to a system similar to LP in League of Legends. The more you win, the more LP you generate, which means that you have an easier time going up. While it might take someone with a 50% win rate to win 10 matches before moving through a tier it might take someone with a win rate of 70% to win 4 games before moving through a tier.
>
> What I said above is all speculation, but I cannot see why it wouldn’t be true. The more you win in a given tier, the less likely it is that you belong in that tier. Also, I feel like 1 month is far to short, however most games in Halo are short, ranging between 10 - 15 min, so I can see why it doesn’t last a whole year like a game like League of Legends. I think 3 months is a perfect amount of time to even out where you belong, but since we don’t know the underlying math in the system, maybe that is why it’s only a month instead.

It would be interesting to see how they weigh wins throughout the season. It could be like Hearthstone, where consecutive wins could net you a “free win” So win 2 times in a row, get a 3rd win thrown in there. As you mentioned, it is all speculative, but it is interesting to see what everyone’s idea on the way the tier progression may go.

13

I guess we’ll have to see how it pans out, and ask for changes accordingly.

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> 2533274808623176;10:
> If it works like most ranked playlists in games, your ranking in previous seasons will have a large impact on where you get placed from your next placement matches.
>
> I still think it’s too short of a turn around, I think at least two months would be good, maybe three.

I could see this being the case. In a game like Hearthstone, if you did well in a previous season you automatically started at a higher rank the following season. The only issue that I could see with this method would be the relevancy of placement matches at the start of every season. Perhaps your previous season divison/tier influences your new season starting tier/division along with the placement matches.

15

I feel they will be to short at 1 month. 3 month would probably be better and prefered. Even if it stays at 1 month you shouldn’t have to much to grind to higher divisions after placement if you have already been playing in them.

16

Yeah, I think it is something that we will have to play out in order to understand it better. I like it if it will help us play more even matches.

17

> 2533274812634029;14:
> > 2533274808623176;10:
> > If it works like most ranked playlists in games, your ranking in previous seasons will have a large impact on where you get placed from your next placement matches.
> >
> > I still think it’s too short of a turn around, I think at least two months would be good, maybe three.
>
>
> I could see this being the case. In a game like Hearthstone, if you did well in a previous season you automatically started at a higher rank the following season. The only issue that I could see with this method would be the relevancy of placement matches at the start of every season. Perhaps your previous season divison/tier influences your new season starting tier/division along with the placement matches.

For the sake of everyone’s sanity I hope it’s like this. I couldn’t imagine next season placement matches where you have Champion/Onyx level players going against Bronze/Silver level players.

18

Seems a bit short. I agree with the first reply. 3 months should be perfect.

19

TL;DR

  • Placement matches at the start of seasons will likely incorporate your previous season rank due to the issues that could arise from not doing so. - **Seasons lasting 1 month are better than seasons lasting 3 months due to the risk of players becoming disinterested in continuing to play once they have decided that they don’t have enough time left in the season to reach a high rank. If halfway through a 1 month long season someone decides that they cannot reach Onyx or higher, they only have to wait 2 weeks for another season to begin instead of 6 weeks.**I do not believe that each CSR tier will require the same amount of CSR points to rank up. It is highly likely that the lower ranks (Bronze, Silver) will require significantly less CSR points before to achieve the next rank. This would be especially helpful in making sure that the amount of time more experienced players spend in the ranks where less skilled players cut their teeth honing their multiplayer skills is limited. Less experienced players are more inclined to stop playing the game altogether when they are matched up against players with higher overall skill for an extended period of time. After all, the purpose of the CSR is intended to be a true ranking of skill. The “true” skill ranks will likely start around the Gold tier as the first two tiers will likely be filled with new and less skilled players learning the strategies and mechanics required to win consistently.

With regard to end of season rank resets, the previous season rank will likely be factored into how players are matched during the placement matches at the start of subsequent seasons as well as your rank once placement matches are completed. Everyone including players who placed in the top 200 and had reached the Champion tier will have to complete the placement matches at the start of the new season and if the previous rank was not taken into consideration when matching players in placement matches, you could theoretically have new players playing their first match against Champion tier players. In addition, you could have reached the Onyx tier in the previous season and lose all 10 placement matches at the beginning of the next season (theoretical but not probable). Instead of automatically being placed at the bottom of the Bronze tier, your previous Onyx rank would likely be considered in the ranking algorithm and you would start somewhere in the Gold tier.

In my eyes, the benefits of using ranks from the previous season in the placement algorithm for the start of a new season heavily outweigh the issues that could arise from ignoring this data altogether. Depending on how many CSR points are given out at the end of matches and how many CSR points are required between rankings, the success and enjoyability of a 1 month long season could be very high.

A 3 month long season is too long in my eyes. If it takes 3 months to be able to achieve the highest ranks and compete for a top 200 slot in the Champion tier, a short absence from the game could result in someone having to wait 2 months or more before their next available opportunity to compete at the highest tiers. A monthly reset of ranks ensures that players will not have to wait very long until they can make another run at achieving Champion status. A lengthened season only creates more opportunities for players to decide that they have no chance of reaching a high level tier and deciding to spend their time playing a different game. With the insane release schedule of other AAA titles through the end of the year, keeping the seasons limited to a month in length keeps the excitement up for playing Halo.

20

> 2533274960333173;19:
> TL;DR
>
> - Placement matches at the start of seasons will likely incorporate your previous season rank due to the issues that could arise from not doing so.
> - Seasons lasting 1 month are better than seasons lasting 3 months due to the risk of players becoming disinterested in continuing to play once they have decided that they don’t have enough time left in the season to reach a high rank. If halfway through a 1 month long season someone decides that they cannot reach Onyx or higher, they only have to wait 2 weeks for another season to begin instead of 6 weeks.
> I do not believe that each CSR tier will require the same amount of CSR points to rank up. It is highly likely that the lower ranks (Bronze, Silver) will require significantly less CSR points before to achieve the next rank. This would be especially helpful in making sure that the amount of time more experienced players spend in the ranks where less skilled players cut their teeth honing their multiplayer skills is limited. Less experienced players are more inclined to stop playing the game altogether when they are matched up against players with higher overall skill for an extended period of time. After all, the purpose of the CSR is intended to be a true ranking of skill. The “true” skill ranks will likely start around the Gold tier as the first two tiers will likely be filled with new and less skilled players learning the strategies and mechanics required to win consistently.
>
> With regard to end of season rank resets, the previous season rank will likely be factored into how players are matched during the placement matches at the start of subsequent seasons as well as your rank once placement matches are completed. Everyone including players who placed in the top 200 and had reached the Champion tier will have to complete the placement matches at the start of the new season and if the previous rank was not taken into consideration when matching players in placement matches, you could theoretically have new players playing their first match against Champion tier players. In addition, you could have reached the Onyx tier in the previous season and lose all 10 placement matches at the beginning of the next season (theoretical but not probable). Instead of automatically being placed at the bottom of the Bronze tier, your previous Onyx rank would likely be considered in the ranking algorithm and you would start somewhere in the Gold tier.
>
> In my eyes, the benefits of using ranks from the previous season in the placement algorithm for the start of a new season heavily outweigh the issues that could arise from ignoring this data altogether. Depending on how many CSR points are given out at the end of matches and how many CSR points are required between rankings, the success and enjoyability of a 1 month long season could be very high.
>
> A 3 month long season is too long in my eyes. If it takes 3 months to be able to achieve the highest ranks and compete for a top 200 slot in the Champion tier, a short absence from the game could result in someone having to wait 2 months or more before their next available opportunity to compete at the highest tiers. A monthly reset of ranks ensures that players will not have to wait very long until they can make another run at achieving Champion status. A lengthened season only creates more opportunities for players to decide that they have no chance of reaching a high level tier and deciding to spend their time playing a different game. With the insane release schedule of other AAA titles through the end of the year, keeping the seasons limited to a month in length keeps the excitement up for playing Halo.

Very nice and detailed analysis you have there. You even mention points that I didn’t even think about. Shorter seasons make sense if you are trying to keep the excitement going. I feel that it is short, but it would only be short based on the underlying math involved with ranking up. Smaller numbers required towards ranking up means that the season could be shorter.