343 Literally Gave Us Data To Be Upset About

The Waypoint companion app now has your service record, including the last 20 games and an expected kills and expected deaths line. I’ve been watching this since it came out. That’s been a few weeks at this point.

There is an obvious and repeating wave in the expected kills and deaths. When you think about what that actually implies, I think it’s honestly unforgivable.

343 has a system that tries to hand you 2-4 game losing streaks consistently. It will repeatedly make sure to match you against other teams where it’s not a 50/50 game. Over, and over, and over again.

Go look at your last 20 games right now. I guarentee you the orange and green lines have 2-3 waves of consistent (but varying) up and down periods.

343 literally built a system that tries to force poor performances on you repeatedly and consistently. And it’s a damn joke


SBMM ruins fun.

It’s that simple, and I don’t get why 343 is so persistent on adding things we don’t want.


A mystery greater than the Foreunners themselves… What the hell are 343 thinking when they make any decisions?


The Forerunners aren’t a mystery anymore under 343’s management.


True, they went from an enigmatic and unknowable ancient race of aliens with technology so advanced it might as well be magic to aliens that love gluing hexagonal rods together then coating them in AstroTurf.


where can i find this companion app?

Try this.

Grab a coin and flip it heads or tails.

You’ll notice it doesn’t go HTHTHT

A run of two HH or TT will happen 50% of the time. A run of three HHH or TTT is 1 in 4.

Quads though. Not so often. 1 in 8. And longer runs… Well, you get the drift.

So what you are describing, and freaking out about, is pretty much what you would expect for a fair and equitable 50:50 system.

And if you are playing consistently there should be a strong correlation with wins over weaker opponents and losses to the stronger ones.

There is conspiracy here.

For God’s sake people. Don’t take up gambling. Or if you do… We’ve got a poker game every second Thursday. Just bring plenty of buy ins. You’ll need them.


I wonder how it predicts your kills/deaths for Fiesta


It would be interesting to keep an eye on.

I was assuming that you have a KPM and DPM attached to your global MMR. After all the purpose of the global MMR is to contain recent game data in a smaller data footprint.

If it’s allocating different expected kills and deaths (per minute) for different game modes then it’s either holding separate data, applying a multiplier to certain modes, or at least keeping an offset value for that mode.

I suspect, to save data space, it just uses your game history to find a base KPM - but with a fudge factor to prioritise past fiesta games.


You’re applying a binary example to a non-binary predictive model, so I don’t think it’s a very strong argument, and I don’t think it has legs to stand on in this case.

I did state it’s forcing losing streaks on you, but I “misspoke”. The game should be ending an expected 50-50 win rate, with the expected KD being how you perform in the game. It’s predicting your expected kills and expected deaths, which is very different than HTHTHT.

A better example would be rolling a 20 sided die and looking at the results. You would get some periods in the data that look like up/down waves, but there should also be periods where the results look totally disconnected.

If 343 didn’t build the system to purposely hand you slumps, then there would also be periods where there is obviously NO up/down part of the wave.

I’ve been watching the graph since it launched. It’s always an up then down wave.


It’s in the Playstore for me. I think it’s just called ‘Waypoint’.

I assume it’s on all the different phone stores, but i guess I’m not positive

I either saw a video, or read an article on the subject, can’t remember which, on the subject of “player engagement” quite a while ago. Trying to find it but nothing yet.

Essentially, what it came down to was that the research showed players are more keen on continuing to play with “that setup”, you lose some matches and then you win some matches. Not too many losses in a row and not too many wins in a row, average being 3 or so.
The reasoning behind players continuing to play would most commonly be:
-If you’re on the losing streak; “I can’t quit now, I’m angry and will only be satisfied with a win”
-If you’re on the winning streak; “I can’t quit now, I’m winning and having fun”

I think I’ve even posted earlier here on that specific subject.
Anyway, quite interesting if i343 literally gave it away like that.


i do think you’re seeing to much in this.
there is also a stat in football (soccer) called expected goals. i don’t know exactly how it works, but it’s something like you get a specific amount (between 0 and 1) of goals per situation near the goal. (a penalty is 0,7 expected-goals i think) … in the end the team with more expected goals could lose and even the team with less than 1 expected goal can still come out on top…
using something like that on halo: it could be (random numbers): a guy oneshot in the sightline of an enemy is an 0,8 expected kill…
doesn’t mean this stat has anything to do with network or whatever.

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The problem is, when you end up losing, you remember it more.
I was doing challenges yesterday, and I can’t remember any of my matches except for three. One, was a SWAT match where I got an overkill. The Second, I had been playing Land Grab and was constantly dying, but not getting kills. I was also the only one in the zone. We lost the match by one point. The third match was Strongholds, the other team worked together and my team kept running into their bullets. Another match I lost.
Losing a match is more memorable than winning. Of the three matches, I can only remember the ones where we lost or something significant happened.


Seems to me like people are always complaining:

  • “SBMM is bad”
  • “winning 50% of the time is not fun”

Well, guess what? People losing 75% or 100% of the time is not fun either.

In school, when you “pick teams” you take turns. It is so you can have a fair game…because that results in more fun for everyone.

Oh yeah - regarding:

  • poorly designed
  • wrong - “because I have matches I cant possibly win”
  • 2-4 losing streaks constantly
  • etc etc

Well, with respect, why dont you just google “truskill2 algorithm” and spend time reading about it because, honestly, most people on here have no idea what is going on and some of these comments are so widely off the mark that it gets frustrating.


I’m not remembering anything though. I’m looking at data provided directly by 343 on my last 20 games.

For every game, 343 provides the expected kills and deaths I should get. There is an obvious pattern of the game forcing consistent streaks of games with bad expected KD.

No “feelings” or “I remember this game”. It’s literally recorded data compared to a predicted outcome.

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I can look at my current averages (K/D, W/L, Accuracy, etc) and then look through my after match stats with a mental snapshot of my averages in mind to compare the data and strive for better results next match. I don’t know why this is much cause for concern, simply put it’s more data analytics for players to use, and most likely already used on an unspoken mental level. If you don’t like the visualized predictive trend, then either don’t look at it or prove it wrong.

It sounds like a basic average comparison, but in a visual form rather than just mental note comparison.

But I don’t understand the ‘inherent’ need to feel upset about this, it’s completely unwarranted hype purely for the sake of causing drama. There’s no in between anymore, why does everything have to be DEFCON 5 or DEFCON 1? Please stop turning molehills into mountains, it takes away from the scale of the actual mountains.

Because most of them are fresh outta school very few of them are actual legacy players and none of them tend to stay around for very long

In other words, “You’re expected to carry”.

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This is the worst rank system in the history of rank systems.